{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fe188c23-ec6a-45ac-ba7a-cb3d74110457", "symbol": "CSWC", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi MSCI Switzerland UCITS ETF-C CHF", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.296, "architecture_energy": 70.681, "architecture_maturity": 36.927, "architecture_confidence": 85.332, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.41, "rotation_up": 68.53, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 57.91, "rotation_down": 22.05, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.2924, 13.193491, 12.875676, 12.647041 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 13.466, "trend_reference": 12.418867, "distance_from_trend": 0.084318, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.963874, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.228215, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.900011, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.098906, "excess_performance": 0.045595, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.084318, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036524, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.228215, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098143, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.049, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011848, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.098906, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.057863, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37868, "relative_activity": 0.330078, "balance": 3.057863, "dry_up": 0.315073, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019068, "annualized_volatility": 0.151462, "from_high_reference": -0.001779, "from_low_reference": 0.243628 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.418867, "fair_value_reference": 10.963874, "structural_low": 11.018, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.003316, "positive_rate": 0.62963, "directional_follow_through": 0.62963, "median_excess_return": 0.003819, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.046653, "worst_return": -0.098669, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.006723, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000942, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.077202, "worst_return": -0.05402, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.060347, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.029131, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.08928, "worst_return": -0.129509, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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12.205667, "fair_value": 10.856682, "relative_strength": 7.661089, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.947397, "energy": 95.517911, "activity_lines": [ 13.0004, 12.753055, 12.450914, 12.338628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.148, "volume": 96453, "typical_volume": 154104.8, "trend": 12.254267, "fair_value": 10.877733, "relative_strength": 7.999487, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.262648, "energy": 89.271496, "activity_lines": [ 13.102533, 12.859855, 12.533905, 12.399424 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.222, "volume": 37364, "typical_volume": 145543.5, "trend": 12.296733, "fair_value": 10.898855, "relative_strength": 8.339854, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.782102, "energy": 89.958743, "activity_lines": [ 13.176933, 12.961091, 12.621171, 12.461858 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.192, "volume": 34829, "typical_volume": 123909.0, "trend": 12.3366, "fair_value": 10.918983, "relative_strength": 7.406325, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.837603, "energy": 86.38294, "activity_lines": [ 13.204933, 13.036764, 12.702933, 12.519617 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.222, "volume": 34525, "typical_volume": 121353.75, "trend": 12.376333, "fair_value": 10.940573, "relative_strength": 5.685094, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.813831, "energy": 65.536097, "activity_lines": [ 13.212, 13.099855, 12.781276, 12.57674 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.466, "volume": 37868, "typical_volume": 114724.25, "trend": 12.418867, "fair_value": 10.963874, "relative_strength": 4.900011, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.295835, "energy": 70.680975, "activity_lines": [ 13.2924, 13.193491, 12.875676, 12.647041 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }