{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fe1bc151-b21a-4e94-add7-51f0c4999f7f", "symbol": "600249", "name": "Liuzhou Liangmianzhen Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.698, "architecture_energy": 34.117, "architecture_maturity": 80.71, "architecture_confidence": 90.432, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.49, "rotation_up": 27.38, "upward_expansion": 17.78, "deceleration": 46.94, "rotation_down": 36.38, "downward_expansion": 67.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.958, 4.886909, 5.144476, 5.365312 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.13, "trend_reference": 5.605667, "distance_from_trend": -0.084855, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.290617, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.030359, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.23666, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.133446, "excess_performance": -0.090242, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.084855, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07237, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.030359, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.228717, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112367, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076055, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.133446, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.49995, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45251329, "relative_activity": 0.672583, "balance": 0.49995, "dry_up": 0.597647, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069876, "annualized_volatility": 0.307852, "from_high_reference": -0.33463, "from_low_reference": 0.137472 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.605667, "fair_value_reference": 5.290617, "structural_low": 4.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.008081, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": 0.025662, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.232, "worst_return": -0.162741, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.016913, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.00757, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.350975, "worst_return": -0.183285, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.10397, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.107467, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.501393, "worst_return": -0.233465, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.262324, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.01354, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00207, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.120582, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": 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"direction": -66.797899, "energy": 82.789808, "activity_lines": [ 4.768, 4.912909, 5.310381, 5.504065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.72, "volume": 40024361, "typical_volume": 69649575.8, "trend": 5.662, "fair_value": 5.295283, "relative_strength": -16.361289, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.25268, "energy": 64.6762, "activity_lines": [ 4.753333, 4.847091, 5.22819, 5.440043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.0, "volume": 32438782, "typical_volume": 69490354.85, "trend": 5.626333, "fair_value": 5.292406, "relative_strength": -11.426347, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.240976, "energy": 46.926583, "activity_lines": [ 4.85, 4.850545, 5.178095, 5.397333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.13, "volume": 45251329, "typical_volume": 67279908.8, "trend": 5.605667, "fair_value": 5.290617, "relative_strength": -11.23666, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.69759, "energy": 34.116594, "activity_lines": [ 4.958, 4.886909, 5.144476, 5.365312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }