{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fe235e8d-2da4-4286-9277-410e53f8817a", "symbol": "BNE", "name": "Bonterra Energy Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 85.087, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.773, "architecture_energy": 20.21, "architecture_maturity": 22.327, "architecture_confidence": 80.0, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.31, "rotation_up": 28.44, "upward_expansion": 20.81, "deceleration": 71.16, "rotation_down": 39.19, "downward_expansion": 36.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.604667, 5.601455, 5.964381, 6.030086 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.55, "trend_reference": 5.927333, "distance_from_trend": -0.06366, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.804423, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.155186, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.525119, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.096838, "excess_performance": -0.023583, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.06366, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102418, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.155186, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.237913, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.005251, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.365885, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.096838, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.117205, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 318300, "relative_activity": 1.037551, "balance": 1.117205, "dry_up": 0.869434, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097713, "annualized_volatility": 0.41517, "from_high_reference": -0.27356, "from_low_reference": 0.666667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.927333, "fair_value_reference": 4.804423, "structural_low": 4.94, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.079925, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.076606, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.323755, "worst_return": -0.182102, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.162549, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.15717, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.940741, "worst_return": -0.355062, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.216766, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.28181, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.078522, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.510539, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.080808, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.079848, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.89, "volume": 459700, "typical_volume": 307065.0, "trend": 6.281, "fair_value": 6.108013, "relative_strength": 1.158579, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.786774, "energy": 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"modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.202432, "energy": 59.361948, "activity_lines": [ 5.463333, 5.88, 6.209095, 6.080581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.53, "volume": 311200, "typical_volume": 380285.0, "trend": 5.803667, "fair_value": 4.827949, "relative_strength": 3.271587, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.512262, "energy": 58.551958, "activity_lines": [ 5.422, 5.758909, 6.13919, 6.065849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.76, "volume": 233000, "typical_volume": 366805.0, "trend": 5.852333, "fair_value": 4.824808, "relative_strength": 6.927891, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.802742, "energy": 44.674356, "activity_lines": [ 5.518667, 5.700727, 6.090048, 6.063032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.68, "volume": 204400, "typical_volume": 346425.0, "trend": 5.888333, "fair_value": 4.81609, "relative_strength": 5.512429, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.797039, "energy": 28.224626, "activity_lines": [ 5.600667, 5.650182, 6.032429, 6.051914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.55, "volume": 318300, "typical_volume": 306780.0, "trend": 5.927333, "fair_value": 4.804423, "relative_strength": -0.525119, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.773318, "energy": 20.209637, "activity_lines": [ 5.604667, 5.601455, 5.964381, 6.030086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }