{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fe28b1f3-4ca0-4326-9bb0-d783005fc079", "symbol": "ERTH", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR INVESCO MSCI SUSTAINABLE FUTURE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.785, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.015, "architecture_energy": 41.963, "architecture_maturity": 4.861, "architecture_confidence": 84.886, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.89, "rotation_up": 15.14, "upward_expansion": 5.24, "deceleration": 47.99, "rotation_down": 62.24, "downward_expansion": 80.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.479853, 46.67309, 47.607171, 47.790083 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 47.465, "trend_reference": 47.981417, "distance_from_trend": -0.010763, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 43.288832, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.096472, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.895316, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.025772, "excess_performance": -0.151397, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010763, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000993, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.096472, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058349, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.108953, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072153, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.025772, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.865821, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34381, "relative_activity": 2.142793, "balance": 0.865821, "dry_up": 1.070446, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032853, "annualized_volatility": 0.155711, "from_high_reference": -0.069599, "from_low_reference": 0.098051 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.981417, "fair_value_reference": 43.288832, "structural_low": 45.1439, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.007482, "positive_rate": 0.592593, "directional_follow_through": 0.407407, "median_excess_return": 0.006115, "regime_survival": 0.740741, "best_return": 0.14574, "worst_return": -0.092028, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.001035, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.040047, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.143587, "worst_return": -0.187049, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.006785, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.07803, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.116356, "worst_return": -0.101132, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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37.852034, "energy": 24.098238, "activity_lines": [ 49.436258, 49.461066, 48.795559, 48.497957 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 48.450288, "volume": 9700, "typical_volume": 15764.0, "trend": 48.083003, "fair_value": 43.375318, "relative_strength": -6.45727, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.203029, "energy": 17.155359, "activity_lines": [ 49.06769, 49.307669, 48.792229, 48.524111 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 48.140923, "volume": 12598, "typical_volume": 15375.25, "trend": 48.174435, "fair_value": 43.392911, "relative_strength": -7.773295, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.489956, "energy": 11.929202, "activity_lines": [ 48.697595, 49.079246, 48.757198, 48.527848 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 46.6741, "volume": 16033, "typical_volume": 15298.3, "trend": 48.165204, "fair_value": 43.388067, "relative_strength": -8.277855, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.626952, "energy": 24.305264, "activity_lines": [ 47.924204, 48.596477, 48.5815, 48.431052 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 46.8054, "volume": 33311, "typical_volume": 16142.1, "trend": 48.161905, "fair_value": 43.382607, "relative_strength": -9.793571, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.569182, "energy": 35.852141, "activity_lines": [ 47.359112, 48.201435, 48.428051, 48.343323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 46.4973, "volume": 13153, "typical_volume": 16459.2, "trend": 48.152773, "fair_value": 43.363794, "relative_strength": -11.403386, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.271828, "energy": 49.39535, "activity_lines": [ 46.964169, 47.797208, 48.256073, 48.235929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 46.3747, "volume": 9667, "typical_volume": 15814.2, "trend": 48.119238, "fair_value": 43.343663, "relative_strength": -10.043393, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.498651, "energy": 58.998984, "activity_lines": [ 46.651202, 47.422645, 48.086806, 48.121215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.5743, "volume": 10133, "typical_volume": 15455.55, "trend": 48.045427, "fair_value": 43.308725, "relative_strength": -10.850071, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.25786, "energy": 73.32121, "activity_lines": [ 46.209807, 46.968001, 47.850291, 47.957025 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.9758, "volume": 14520, "typical_volume": 15363.85, "trend": 47.982988, "fair_value": 43.288893, "relative_strength": -10.850897, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.492096, "energy": 66.372282, "activity_lines": [ 46.073353, 46.656379, 47.655905, 47.823501 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.465, "volume": 34381, "typical_volume": 16044.95, "trend": 47.981417, "fair_value": 43.288832, "relative_strength": -10.895316, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.015029, "energy": 41.963083, "activity_lines": [ 46.479853, 46.67309, 47.607171, 47.790083 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }