{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fe2a490d-86b8-46d5-8f35-93880c7bcedc", "symbol": "ACROUD", "name": "Acroud AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 80.78, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 13.647, "architecture_energy": 6.874, "architecture_maturity": 7.948, "architecture_confidence": 65.797, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.74, "rotation_up": 33.0, "upward_expansion": 50.48, "deceleration": 72.35, "rotation_down": 27.32, "downward_expansion": 28.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.142067, 0.142873, 0.143143, 0.141641 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.139, "trend_reference": 0.140233, "distance_from_trend": -0.008795, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.577026, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.759109, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.066783, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.054422, "excess_performance": -0.115916, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008795, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002622, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.759109, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04202, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140668, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048709, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.054422, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.542028, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 81710, "relative_activity": 0.10827, "balance": 3.542028, "dry_up": 0.040943, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123962, "annualized_volatility": 0.474856, "from_high_reference": -0.268421, "from_low_reference": 0.112 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.140233, "fair_value_reference": 0.577026, "structural_low": 0.125, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.060052, "positive_rate": 0.304348, "directional_follow_through": 0.304348, "median_excess_return": -0.040992, "regime_survival": 0.652174, "best_return": 0.101449, "worst_return": -0.172872, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.042857, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.071875, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.126685, "worst_return": -0.281746, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.154043, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.092447, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.015707, "worst_return": -0.312977, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.253968, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.395188, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.251366, "worst_return": -0.363208, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-02-03", "end": "2023-03-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.207547, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-03-17", "end": "2023-04-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.409231, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-04-28", "end": "2023-05-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.256637, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-06-02", "end": "2023-06-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040431, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-06-16", "end": "2023-07-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.097222, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-07-14", "end": "2023-09-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103359, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-10-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.085294, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.897576, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.273224, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022556, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.077465, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.116564, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057971, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.04, "volume": 3420404, "typical_volume": 410501.4, "trend": 1.945667, "fair_value": 2.422404, "relative_strength": 4.941992, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", 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"close": 0.147, "volume": 548469, "typical_volume": 871082.8, "trend": 0.141167, "fair_value": 0.624596, "relative_strength": -8.562513, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.250869, "energy": 15.799443, "activity_lines": [ 0.1434, 0.145364, 0.142524, 0.141316 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.147, "volume": 14019, "typical_volume": 862299.9, "trend": 0.141233, "fair_value": 0.612974, "relative_strength": -6.971609, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.555335, "energy": 14.627813, "activity_lines": [ 0.144733, 0.145673, 0.143205, 0.141692 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.137, "volume": 60, "typical_volume": 818792.1, "trend": 0.1409, "fair_value": 0.601064, "relative_strength": -13.82334, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.935168, "energy": 10.951796, "activity_lines": [ 0.142533, 0.144109, 0.142867, 0.141419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.146, "volume": 27808, "typical_volume": 777505.55, "trend": 0.140667, "fair_value": 0.589404, "relative_strength": -8.732058, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.939282, "energy": 13.943492, "activity_lines": [ 0.1434, 0.144164, 0.143338, 0.141748 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.139, "volume": 81710, "typical_volume": 754689.65, "trend": 0.140233, "fair_value": 0.577026, "relative_strength": -14.066783, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.647101, "energy": 6.873762, "activity_lines": [ 0.142067, 0.142873, 0.143143, 0.141641 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }