{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fe2b8f5c-171c-4f37-8e70-d92be985a30d", "symbol": "XLB", "name": "State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 62.161, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.121, "architecture_energy": 27.007, "architecture_maturity": 19.986, "architecture_confidence": 49.099, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.07, "rotation_up": 44.91, "upward_expansion": 70.88, "deceleration": 65.83, "rotation_down": 19.9, "downward_expansion": 4.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 898.74401, 896.211852, 892.465699, 891.034074 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 891.210022, "trend_reference": 887.757273, "distance_from_trend": 0.003889, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1449.394238, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.385116, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.756242, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.017169, "excess_performance": 0.071835, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003889, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079535, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.385116, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018522, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.227562, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.172196, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017169, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.87132, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 98, "relative_activity": 0.001609, "balance": 1.87132, "dry_up": 0.012181, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021316, "annualized_volatility": 0.1627, "from_high_reference": -0.480901, "from_low_reference": 0.12528 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 887.757273, "fair_value_reference": 1449.394238, "structural_low": 847.26001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.014441, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.023329, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.074114, "worst_return": -0.053407, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.02868, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.010373, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.122759, "worst_return": -0.166996, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.014015, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.021412, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.074393, "worst_return": -0.233085, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.099659, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004251, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037222, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.040036, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009947, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": 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11.009811, "activity_lines": [ 888.03361, 887.761958, 887.618509, 886.636624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 910.0, "volume": 1605, "typical_volume": 63405.1, "trend": 882.305406, "fair_value": 1455.938973, "relative_strength": -23.088144, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.138094, "energy": 28.683294, "activity_lines": [ 893.851339, 892.234349, 889.817293, 888.67377 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 914.0, "volume": 973, "typical_volume": 60891.55, "trend": 886.319906, "fair_value": 1452.744653, "relative_strength": -22.09622, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.582305, "energy": 37.653957, "activity_lines": [ 900.446004, 896.720716, 892.33094, 890.718582 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 891.210022, "volume": 98, "typical_volume": 60892.75, "trend": 887.757273, "fair_value": 1449.394238, "relative_strength": -22.756242, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.121173, "energy": 27.007322, "activity_lines": [ 898.74401, 896.211852, 892.465699, 891.034074 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }