{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fe2dbc55-067d-4a26-bcdd-41c6ded07c06", "symbol": "200016", "name": "Konka Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.638, "architecture_energy": 22.285, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 69.53, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.49, "rotation_up": 26.9, "upward_expansion": 18.51, "deceleration": 46.6, "rotation_down": 27.49, "downward_expansion": 54.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.744667, 0.731818, 0.742095, 0.781828 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.77, "trend_reference": 0.884667, "distance_from_trend": -0.129616, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.032628, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.25433, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -38.797929, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.437956, "excess_performance": -0.445356, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.129616, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.245808, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.25433, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090552, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.387979, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.155206, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.437956, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.123729, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2300900, "relative_activity": 0.386725, "balance": 1.123729, "dry_up": 0.696846, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100899, "annualized_volatility": 0.767333, "from_high_reference": -0.605128, "from_low_reference": 0.241935 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.884667, "fair_value_reference": 1.032628, "structural_low": 0.62, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.027523, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.685714, "median_excess_return": -0.027204, "regime_survival": 0.914286, "best_return": 0.37931, "worst_return": -0.189189, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.119266, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.076897, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.15625, "worst_return": -0.266129, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.146887, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.074579, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.6875, "worst_return": -0.380952, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048544, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.138889, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009709, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.117647, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.446429, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.054308, "energy": 48.697894, "activity_lines": [ 0.716, 0.728909, 0.758952, 0.836258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.7, "volume": 7246776, "typical_volume": 6425937.75, "trend": 0.961, "fair_value": 1.046474, "relative_strength": -43.701259, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.122072, "energy": 46.099197, "activity_lines": [ 0.712667, 0.721636, 0.749667, 0.817613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.72, "volume": 2423902, "typical_volume": 6165335.4, "trend": 0.934667, "fair_value": 1.041731, "relative_strength": -41.756011, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.388226, "energy": 37.623562, "activity_lines": [ 0.716, 0.718364, 0.743429, 0.802065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.76, "volume": 4612532, "typical_volume": 6150488.4, "trend": 0.909, "fair_value": 1.037051, "relative_strength": -37.036028, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.877429, "energy": 29.030008, "activity_lines": [ 0.732, 0.724, 0.741952, 0.790796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.77, "volume": 2300900, "typical_volume": 5949703.45, "trend": 0.884667, "fair_value": 1.032628, "relative_strength": -38.797929, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.637614, "energy": 22.284541, "activity_lines": [ 0.744667, 0.731818, 0.742095, 0.781828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }