{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fe41cffe-5ad8-4e93-87d8-4538ba805aba", "symbol": "FOCT", "name": "FT VEST U.S. EQUITY BUFFER ETF - OCTOBER", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 53.122, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.344, "architecture_energy": 76.818, "architecture_maturity": 42.926, "architecture_confidence": 75.675, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.28, "rotation_up": 65.7, "upward_expansion": 90.54, "deceleration": 49.47, "rotation_down": 25.04, "downward_expansion": 14.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.84686, 52.5647, 52.103669, 51.378623 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 53.4648, "trend_reference": 50.556737, "distance_from_trend": 0.057521, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.875599, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.218554, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.521209, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.081845, "excess_performance": -0.043779, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.057521, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024835, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.218554, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009208, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.035212, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00172, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.081845, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.456929, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 120486, "relative_activity": 0.788586, "balance": 0.456929, "dry_up": 0.52971, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01184, "annualized_volatility": 0.083868, "from_high_reference": -0.001031, "from_low_reference": 0.172988 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.556737, "fair_value_reference": 43.875599, "structural_low": 46.63, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.010048, "positive_rate": 0.756757, "directional_follow_through": 0.756757, "median_excess_return": -0.001902, "regime_survival": 0.891892, "best_return": 0.051281, "worst_return": -0.048127, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.028165, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.00797, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.053617, "worst_return": -0.023582, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.063693, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.029696, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.099785, "worst_return": 0.01541, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 43.680803, "relative_strength": -1.422652, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.591631, "energy": 78.661091, "activity_lines": [ 52.35874, 52.229345, 51.691886, 51.02431 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.7515, "volume": 69742, "typical_volume": 151461.35, "trend": 50.425243, "fair_value": 43.775692, "relative_strength": -1.557335, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.317013, "energy": 79.286703, "activity_lines": [ 52.5203, 52.340282, 51.874906, 51.182523 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.4648, "volume": 120486, "typical_volume": 152787.45, "trend": 50.556737, "fair_value": 43.875599, "relative_strength": -3.521209, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.343728, "energy": 76.817815, "activity_lines": [ 52.84686, 52.5647, 52.103669, 51.378623 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }