{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fe47918d-c977-487f-907a-d729ad7b08e9", "symbol": "GASS", "name": "StealthGas Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 70.347, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -14.351, "architecture_energy": 12.253, "architecture_maturity": 17.351, "architecture_confidence": 64.127, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.53, "rotation_up": 28.72, "upward_expansion": 19.31, "deceleration": 70.14, "rotation_down": 32.09, "downward_expansion": 32.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.738667, 8.680182, 8.982905, 9.042108 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.59, "trend_reference": 8.936667, "distance_from_trend": -0.038791, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.786667, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.265717, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.865219, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.079146, "excess_performance": -0.108308, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.038791, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070217, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.265717, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.28814, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068652, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17961, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.079146, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.992923, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 459679, "relative_activity": 0.771813, "balance": 0.992923, "dry_up": 0.754219, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081832, "annualized_volatility": 0.445901, "from_high_reference": -0.185782, "from_low_reference": 0.403595 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.936667, "fair_value_reference": 6.786667, "structural_low": 7.7, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.007853, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.009619, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.307692, "worst_return": -0.12709, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.044057, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.045589, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.3125, "worst_return": -0.262391, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.14527, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.109691, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.480769, "worst_return": -0.155977, "sufficient": true }, { 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{ "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.173469, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.020833, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088652, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020183, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053691, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-10-03", 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36.72878, "activity_lines": [ 8.536667, 8.885818, 9.182857, 9.068753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.53, "volume": 520652, "typical_volume": 772698.85, "trend": 8.789, "fair_value": 6.715409, "relative_strength": -3.504345, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.601028, "energy": 44.060869, "activity_lines": [ 8.499333, 8.765818, 9.110571, 9.05572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.83, "volume": 459155, "typical_volume": 661988.75, "trend": 8.849667, "fair_value": 6.741506, "relative_strength": 1.357128, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.326453, "energy": 19.383232, "activity_lines": [ 8.636667, 8.725273, 9.068857, 9.058366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.92, "volume": 357317, "typical_volume": 617439.55, "trend": 8.912333, "fair_value": 6.765513, "relative_strength": 1.673443, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.560667, "energy": 9.430763, "activity_lines": [ 8.768, 8.723636, 9.042048, 9.062903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.59, "volume": 459679, "typical_volume": 595583.7, "trend": 8.936667, "fair_value": 6.786667, "relative_strength": -6.865219, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.350922, "energy": 12.253443, "activity_lines": [ 8.738667, 8.680182, 8.982905, 9.042108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }