{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fe4896f5-4f0f-4df8-97d2-0292ad283bdc", "symbol": "BTPL5", "name": "SG ETN DAILY LONG 5X BTP FUTURE", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.829, "architecture_energy": 69.38, "architecture_maturity": 8.779, "architecture_confidence": 81.266, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.45, "rotation_up": 11.15, "upward_expansion": 17.37, "deceleration": 34.61, "rotation_down": 72.81, "downward_expansion": 88.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.173333, 14.571564, 14.764048, 14.930963 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.444, "trend_reference": 15.361667, "distance_from_trend": -0.059737, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.986159, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.036177, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.187201, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.149052, "excess_performance": -0.319943, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.059737, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036088, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.036177, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054549, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.221872, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040051, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.149052, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.907429, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2362, "relative_activity": 0.622899, "balance": 0.907429, "dry_up": 1.462968, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04841, "annualized_volatility": 0.347014, "from_high_reference": -0.201989, "from_low_reference": 0.105126 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.361667, "fair_value_reference": 14.986159, "structural_low": 13.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.049345, "positive_rate": 0.909091, "directional_follow_through": 0.090909, "median_excess_return": 0.006659, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.373279, "worst_return": -0.019016, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.198453, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.15517, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.510155, "worst_return": 0.189571, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.259537, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.191452, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.502788, "worst_return": 0.199002, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.866557, "energy": 17.708294, "activity_lines": [ 15.4984, 15.298364, 15.092181, 15.357914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.908, "volume": 1989, "typical_volume": 5082.0, "trend": 15.657333, "fair_value": 14.952966, "relative_strength": -20.30721, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.271538, "energy": 15.399495, "activity_lines": [ 15.354, 15.260982, 15.061905, 15.307105 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.168, "volume": 7349, "typical_volume": 5196.25, "trend": 15.589467, "fair_value": 14.959889, "relative_strength": -22.682824, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.910463, "energy": 25.009083, "activity_lines": [ 14.953467, 15.080473, 14.974676, 15.211019 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.872, "volume": 7607, "typical_volume": 5203.75, "trend": 15.509533, "fair_value": 14.964389, "relative_strength": -23.668534, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.940191, "energy": 61.592079, "activity_lines": [ 14.517467, 14.863018, 14.87821, 15.100215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.88, "volume": 4872, "typical_volume": 4729.6, "trend": 15.437867, "fair_value": 14.972979, "relative_strength": -23.575492, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.881303, "energy": 72.977909, "activity_lines": [ 14.181333, 14.656836, 14.791705, 14.995084 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.444, "volume": 2362, "typical_volume": 3791.95, "trend": 15.361667, "fair_value": 14.986159, "relative_strength": -22.187201, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.828812, "energy": 69.379755, "activity_lines": [ 14.173333, 14.571564, 14.764048, 14.930963 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }