{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fe4d8e4f-4688-43c8-850b-a5c73f67cea3", "symbol": "IVN", "name": "iVision Tech S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.117, "architecture_energy": 79.645, "architecture_maturity": 53.464, "architecture_confidence": 79.382, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.69, "rotation_up": 8.46, "upward_expansion": 18.54, "deceleration": 37.04, "rotation_down": 81.22, "downward_expansion": 96.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.480333, 1.570455, 1.648929, 1.697989 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.48, "trend_reference": 1.7795, "distance_from_trend": -0.168306, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.729865, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.144442, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.634443, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.223097, "excess_performance": -0.393989, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.168306, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048481, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.144442, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159037, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.336344, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09001, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.223097, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.194595, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 310500, "relative_activity": 3.673469, "balance": 1.194595, "dry_up": 2.094055, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092516, "annualized_volatility": 0.370978, "from_high_reference": -0.487889, "from_low_reference": 0.15625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.7795, "fair_value_reference": 1.729865, "structural_low": 1.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.00581, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.057184, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.196581, "worst_return": -0.126866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.025568, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.101131, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.06, "worst_return": -0.084577, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.025, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.048032, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.025, "worst_return": 0.025, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043478, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.105, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.138393, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.218905, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.188976, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.146341, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.159091, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.57, "volume": 16500, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": 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"typical_volume": 70575.0, "trend": 1.808333, "fair_value": 1.734381, "relative_strength": -30.03045, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.789717, "energy": 59.071942, "activity_lines": [ 1.665667, 1.710091, 1.72669, 1.765312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.51, "volume": 78000, "typical_volume": 67050.0, "trend": 1.799167, "fair_value": 1.732942, "relative_strength": -31.374541, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.515152, "energy": 70.831096, "activity_lines": [ 1.607333, 1.670091, 1.704881, 1.746065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.36, "volume": 157500, "typical_volume": 72225.0, "trend": 1.786, "fair_value": 1.730603, "relative_strength": -37.828649, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.310843, "energy": 83.94236, "activity_lines": [ 1.512, 1.606182, 1.670357, 1.717731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.48, "volume": 310500, "typical_volume": 84525.0, "trend": 1.7795, "fair_value": 1.729865, "relative_strength": -33.634443, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.116788, "energy": 79.645155, "activity_lines": [ 1.480333, 1.570455, 1.648929, 1.697989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }