{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fe557034-a662-48ba-ab5d-a8db10073383", "symbol": "ALPA4", "name": "Alpargatas S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -0.975, "architecture_energy": 2.093, "architecture_maturity": 33.947, "architecture_confidence": 69.288, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 71.0, "rotation_up": 19.01, "upward_expansion": 23.87, "deceleration": 42.76, "rotation_down": 35.24, "downward_expansion": 52.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.402667, 12.335636, 12.297333, 12.403226 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.53, "trend_reference": 12.733, "distance_from_trend": 0.062593, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.478892, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.595727, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 15.134473, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.125404, "excess_performance": -0.068356, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062593, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031046, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.595727, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086226, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.151345, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.116885, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.125404, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.947113, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11406200, "relative_activity": 1.487809, "balance": 0.947113, "dry_up": 0.944428, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079368, "annualized_volatility": 0.499421, "from_high_reference": -0.165845, "from_low_reference": 0.760265 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.733, "fair_value_reference": 8.478892, "structural_low": 10.8, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.017486, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.012308, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.121248, "worst_return": -0.200596, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.007047, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.029114, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.450237, "worst_return": -0.242555, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.066916, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.144914, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.50079, "worst_return": -0.560038, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.127973, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.281595, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.830469, "worst_return": -0.575889, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.103333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026558, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053552, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026806, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.165637, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090047, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061674, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.158322, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.101993, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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12.503506, "fair_value": 8.252134, "relative_strength": 17.09856, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.743706, "energy": 12.042961, "activity_lines": [ 12.467333, 12.298727, 12.394143, 12.579368 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 13.08, "volume": 896600, "typical_volume": 10124680.0, "trend": 12.591926, "fair_value": 8.280324, "relative_strength": 17.079389, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.850721, "energy": 18.497438, "activity_lines": [ 12.749333, 12.449273, 12.416095, 12.616561 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 12.45, "volume": 1619000, "typical_volume": 9560260.0, "trend": 12.64469, "fair_value": 8.30983, "relative_strength": 7.967281, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.077504, "energy": 11.441125, "activity_lines": [ 12.702, 12.470182, 12.38419, 12.607405 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 11.94, "volume": 1043600, "typical_volume": 9015135.0, "trend": 12.688419, "fair_value": 8.336608, "relative_strength": 2.543545, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.509466, "energy": 15.815524, "activity_lines": [ 12.474667, 12.400727, 12.318095, 12.561941 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.18, "volume": 4329500, "typical_volume": 8988825.0, "trend": 12.707333, "fair_value": 8.367629, "relative_strength": 2.05988, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.508161, "energy": 14.986985, "activity_lines": [ 12.358, 12.379818, 12.289571, 12.52914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.11, "volume": 4236000, "typical_volume": 8921275.0, "trend": 12.720333, "fair_value": 8.397606, "relative_strength": 3.4583, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.267708, "energy": 22.636481, "activity_lines": [ 12.204667, 12.343273, 12.267286, 12.490602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.97, "volume": 7614900, "typical_volume": 8577490.0, "trend": 12.693, "fair_value": 8.416436, "relative_strength": -6.683564, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.397025, "energy": 54.022646, "activity_lines": [ 11.744, 12.102727, 12.151952, 12.377677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.27, "volume": 5704500, "typical_volume": 7948385.0, "trend": 12.711, "fair_value": 8.445924, "relative_strength": 1.679188, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.402251, "energy": 40.401105, "activity_lines": [ 11.857333, 12.104364, 12.166571, 12.350387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.53, "volume": 11406200, "typical_volume": 7666440.0, "trend": 12.733, "fair_value": 8.478892, "relative_strength": 15.134473, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.974569, "energy": 2.093282, "activity_lines": [ 12.402667, 12.335636, 12.297333, 12.403226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }