{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fe57b489-9d27-4d95-af99-7700a8a0b610", "symbol": "ASIMAR", "name": "Asian Marine Services Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 71.782, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 20.967, "architecture_energy": 27.939, "architecture_maturity": 59.836, "architecture_confidence": 69.139, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.8, "rotation_up": 60.79, "upward_expansion": 40.36, "deceleration": 43.18, "rotation_down": 16.91, "downward_expansion": 17.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.431333, 1.397091, 1.392476, 1.409258 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.45, "trend_reference": 1.424958, "distance_from_trend": 0.017574, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.340315, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.081835, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.986181, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.03558, "excess_performance": -0.156745, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017574, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008389, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.081835, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006921, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119862, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0041, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.03558, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.659538, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2216000, "relative_activity": 2.425689, "balance": 4.659538, "dry_up": 1.849807, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043501, "annualized_volatility": 0.232336, "from_high_reference": -0.080162, "from_low_reference": 0.124031 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.424958, "fair_value_reference": 1.340315, "structural_low": 1.29, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.018163, "positive_rate": 0.576923, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.001679, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.253623, "worst_return": -0.12069, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.043716, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.02584, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.212598, "worst_return": -0.16529, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.040314, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.039977, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.155842, "worst_return": -0.160039, "sufficient": true }, 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1.435648, 1.438474 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 1.34, "volume": 99800, "typical_volume": 676545.0, "trend": 1.434618, "fair_value": 1.333078, "relative_strength": -20.312578, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.252771, "energy": 73.887521, "activity_lines": [ 1.362667, 1.388364, 1.425373, 1.43218 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 1.34, "volume": 110900, "typical_volume": 658785.0, "trend": 1.432612, "fair_value": 1.333441, "relative_strength": -18.894568, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.513859, "energy": 76.259065, "activity_lines": [ 1.352, 1.375455, 1.415384, 1.426076 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 1.3, "volume": 235600, "typical_volume": 640565.0, "trend": 1.428655, "fair_value": 1.333758, "relative_strength": -19.339244, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.671007, "energy": 82.339051, "activity_lines": [ 1.332, 1.357818, 1.401873, 1.41752 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.31, "volume": 1107800, "typical_volume": 647595.0, "trend": 1.424721, "fair_value": 1.334139, "relative_strength": -21.793623, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.245678, "energy": 79.66639, "activity_lines": [ 1.321333, 1.344909, 1.38979, 1.409865 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.4, "volume": 6008700, "typical_volume": 855810.0, "trend": 1.42317, "fair_value": 1.335202, "relative_strength": -16.584838, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.950394, "energy": 45.599901, "activity_lines": [ 1.344, 1.350909, 1.387062, 1.40827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.4, "volume": 693700, "typical_volume": 833530.0, "trend": 1.423164, "fair_value": 1.336369, "relative_strength": -17.204745, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.27268, "energy": 31.040997, "activity_lines": [ 1.364667, 1.357455, 1.385086, 1.406775 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.42, "volume": 3290100, "typical_volume": 966220.0, "trend": 1.423824, "fair_value": 1.337613, "relative_strength": -16.014305, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.19853, "energy": 19.865449, "activity_lines": [ 1.388, 1.368182, 1.38581, 1.406571 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.44, "volume": 559800, "typical_volume": 821920.0, "trend": 1.424533, "fair_value": 1.338879, "relative_strength": -13.505634, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.009881, "energy": 21.85325, "activity_lines": [ 1.412667, 1.382182, 1.388476, 1.407615 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.45, "volume": 2216000, "typical_volume": 913555.0, "trend": 1.424958, "fair_value": 1.340315, "relative_strength": -11.986181, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.96666, "energy": 27.939186, "activity_lines": [ 1.431333, 1.397091, 1.392476, 1.409258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }