{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fe63ce57-1eb7-493e-a418-24fbcd43db94", "symbol": "KPG", "name": "Kiwi Property Group Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.996, "architecture_energy": 13.415, "architecture_maturity": 20.016, "architecture_confidence": 64.115, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.39, "rotation_up": 24.58, "upward_expansion": 22.79, "deceleration": 51.87, "rotation_down": 37.15, "downward_expansion": 54.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.933, 0.935379, 0.93031, 0.93306 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.92, "trend_reference": 0.945081, "distance_from_trend": -0.026538, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.862471, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.066702, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.390412, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.066666, "excess_performance": -0.09494, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.026538, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035794, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.066702, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035028, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.093904, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059324, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.066666, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.371383, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5632058, "relative_activity": 1.108361, "balance": 0.371383, "dry_up": 0.856445, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037968, "annualized_volatility": 0.121048, "from_high_reference": -0.174156, "from_low_reference": 0.061609 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.945081, "fair_value_reference": 0.862471, "structural_low": 0.866609, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.012345, "positive_rate": 0.684211, "directional_follow_through": 0.684211, "median_excess_return": 0.003244, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 0.107954, "worst_return": -0.081094, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.023709, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.017505, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.192106, "worst_return": -0.128481, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.009848, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.017648, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.147206, "worst_return": -0.123545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"trend": 0.95759, "fair_value": 0.858722, "relative_strength": -7.578415, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.796683, "energy": 11.289281, "activity_lines": [ 0.938333, 0.932655, 0.927207, 0.937565 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.95, "volume": 4353778, "typical_volume": 5128335.8, "trend": 0.955414, "fair_value": 0.859768, "relative_strength": -5.893877, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.689124, "energy": 10.993467, "activity_lines": [ 0.943333, 0.936229, 0.929068, 0.937075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.945, "volume": 4344372, "typical_volume": 5057600.8, "trend": 0.952743, "fair_value": 0.860673, "relative_strength": -6.841908, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.688318, "energy": 12.650878, "activity_lines": [ 0.945, 0.93863, 0.930645, 0.936403 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.93, "volume": 3077655, "typical_volume": 5023876.05, "trend": 0.949078, "fair_value": 0.861564, "relative_strength": -7.705272, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.280431, "energy": 9.3442, "activity_lines": [ 0.940667, 0.937953, 0.930894, 0.934936 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.92, "volume": 5632058, "typical_volume": 5081431.35, "trend": 0.945081, "fair_value": 0.862471, "relative_strength": -9.390412, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.996278, "energy": 13.414892, "activity_lines": [ 0.933, 0.935379, 0.93031, 0.93306 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }