{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fe71f488-6ede-432a-a6f4-2090ef88b955", "symbol": "600729", "name": "Chongqing Chongbai Technology Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.946, "architecture_energy": 19.94, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 62.509, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.76, "rotation_up": 34.36, "upward_expansion": 20.55, "deceleration": 44.15, "rotation_down": 18.89, "downward_expansion": 52.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.323333, 19.991454, 20.107523, 20.703589 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 20.139999, "trend_reference": 21.748967, "distance_from_trend": -0.073979, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.083734, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.197089, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.408059, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.181301, "excess_performance": -0.138097, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.073979, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097579, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.197089, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025621, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.164081, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100343, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.181301, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.640064, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21149368, "relative_activity": 1.562814, "balance": 0.640064, "dry_up": 1.699074, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059888, "annualized_volatility": 0.237644, "from_high_reference": -0.376355, "from_low_reference": 0.083961 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.748967, "fair_value_reference": 25.083734, "structural_low": 18.58, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.018292, "positive_rate": 0.576923, "directional_follow_through": 0.423077, "median_excess_return": 0.001683, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.304643, "worst_return": -0.161363, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.032556, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.075138, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.193659, "worst_return": -0.182556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.088331, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.046414, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.162037, "worst_return": -0.166981, "sufficient": true }, { 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25.326602, "relative_strength": -23.48283, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.312486, "energy": 57.654006, "activity_lines": [ 19.328666, 19.517454, 20.285809, 21.188621 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.33, "volume": 22733600, "typical_volume": 12589764.75, "trend": 22.367339, "fair_value": 25.276629, "relative_strength": -13.880539, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.728032, "energy": 44.121308, "activity_lines": [ 19.626667, 19.623273, 20.215047, 21.045734 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.76, "volume": 24062466, "typical_volume": 12770440.05, "trend": 22.116576, "fair_value": 25.20924, "relative_strength": -16.708361, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.14422, "energy": 33.767293, "activity_lines": [ 19.716667, 19.643273, 20.106428, 20.877519 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.219999, "volume": 24027989, "typical_volume": 13168735.7, "trend": 21.939337, "fair_value": 25.14926, "relative_strength": -10.30164, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.293977, "energy": 17.2581, "activity_lines": [ 20.285333, 19.933091, 20.153238, 20.819675 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.139999, "volume": 21149368, "typical_volume": 13532874.35, "trend": 21.748967, "fair_value": 25.083734, "relative_strength": -16.408059, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.945596, "energy": 19.940387, "activity_lines": [ 20.323333, 19.991454, 20.107523, 20.703589 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }