{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fe769d2d-60f8-422a-9c81-da945b20e953", "symbol": "NOCIL", "name": "NOCIL Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.479, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 12.105, "architecture_energy": 14.399, "architecture_maturity": 26.656, "architecture_confidence": 82.921, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.44, "rotation_up": 24.06, "upward_expansion": 44.7, "deceleration": 81.13, "rotation_down": 38.26, "downward_expansion": 34.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 165.097713, 167.390776, 168.506597, 165.553458 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 168.649994, "trend_reference": 159.423742, "distance_from_trend": 0.057873, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 214.42469, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.213477, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.791944, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.170368, "excess_performance": 0.214077, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.057873, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009198, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.213477, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049675, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.027919, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081488, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.170368, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.884305, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17352937, "relative_activity": 1.325589, "balance": 2.884305, "dry_up": 0.432674, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0718, "annualized_volatility": 0.376468, "from_high_reference": -0.123851, "from_low_reference": 0.345862 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 159.423742, "fair_value_reference": 214.42469, "structural_low": 126.209999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.015663, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": -0.020685, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.190828, "worst_return": -0.094752, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.030249, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.058043, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.269561, "worst_return": -0.251525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.059685, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.123972, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.218946, 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"energy": 32.866764, "activity_lines": [ 171.116544, 169.103084, 169.124821, 164.379903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 160.110001, "volume": 1799006, "typical_volume": 12626018.05, "trend": 158.153742, "fair_value": 215.155756, "relative_strength": 0.623651, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.88088, "energy": 10.555908, "activity_lines": [ 167.468391, 167.691952, 168.642572, 164.514329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 164.169998, "volume": 1499577, "typical_volume": 12541943.85, "trend": 158.559742, "fair_value": 214.799406, "relative_strength": 0.744389, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.319699, "energy": 12.53674, "activity_lines": [ 165.002811, 167.098455, 168.430514, 164.902474 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 168.649994, "volume": 17352937, "typical_volume": 13090738.15, "trend": 159.423742, "fair_value": 214.42469, "relative_strength": 2.791944, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.104911, "energy": 14.399058, "activity_lines": [ 165.097713, 167.390776, 168.506597, 165.553458 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }