{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "fe7e11ee-69bc-458d-a317-79d080757d7f",
    "symbol": "VEL",
    "name": "Velocity Financial\u00a0Llc",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch",
    "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch",
    "confidence": 77.884,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -21.686,
    "architecture_energy": 12.221,
    "architecture_maturity": 35.058,
    "architecture_confidence": 66.904,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 53.53,
        "rotation_up": 26.21,
        "upward_expansion": 16.49,
        "deceleration": 36.01,
        "rotation_down": 34.27,
        "downward_expansion": 61.82
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        17.797333,
        17.796182,
        17.86781,
        18.028946
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      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 18.46,
    "trend_reference": 18.368,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.005009,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 17.646731,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.046086,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -11.573444,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.099073,
    "excess_performance": -0.224698,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.005009,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.023169,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.046086,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.018916,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.115734,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.011126,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.099073,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.561207,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 561900,
      "relative_activity": 1.270274,
      "balance": 1.561207,
      "dry_up": 1.205977,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.052085,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.247381,
      "from_high_reference": -0.137182,
      "from_low_reference": 0.108709
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 18.368,
      "fair_value_reference": 17.646731,
      "structural_low": 16.65,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 15,
        "median_return": 0.035714,
        "positive_rate": 0.533333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.466667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.000476,
        "regime_survival": 0.6,
        "best_return": 0.388889,
        "worst_return": -0.049911,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.028459,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.008407,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.388558,
        "worst_return": -0.034759,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.085659,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.016902,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
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        "worst_return": -0.092649,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.139964,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
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        "best_return": 1.061979,
        "worst_return": -0.254011,
        "sufficient": false
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    ],
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      {
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "typical_volume": 542528.9,
        "trend": 18.923667,
        "fair_value": 17.066795,
        "relative_strength": -5.137344,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 16.284764,
        "energy": 25.754511,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 548912.05,
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        "relative_strength": -18.636478,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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        "energy": 31.923308,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 533387.05,
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        "stage": 4,
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        "energy": 53.383806,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 517535.05,
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        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 502077.95,
        "trend": 18.755333,
        "fair_value": 17.323718,
        "relative_strength": -15.145368,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 494399.85,
        "trend": 18.728667,
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        "relative_strength": -14.619389,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 473243.4,
        "trend": 18.664667,
        "fair_value": 17.436795,
        "relative_strength": -9.202752,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -39.719374,
        "energy": 25.098315,
        "activity_lines": [
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          18.317441
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 465453,
        "typical_volume": 470839.85,
        "trend": 18.655333,
        "fair_value": 17.483526,
        "relative_strength": -9.090032,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -24.5688,
        "energy": 13.95359,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 382356,
        "typical_volume": 470066.0,
        "trend": 18.578,
        "fair_value": 17.518333,
        "relative_strength": -16.217868,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -42.29761,
        "energy": 19.29842,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.862,
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          17.984095,
          18.221957
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 17.5,
        "volume": 497882,
        "typical_volume": 463954.15,
        "trend": 18.510333,
        "fair_value": 17.552564,
        "relative_strength": -13.490923,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -38.370718,
        "energy": 17.844521,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.751333,
          17.694909,
          17.928238,
          18.152409
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 17.41,
        "volume": 638597,
        "typical_volume": 476186.4,
        "trend": 18.44,
        "fair_value": 17.586603,
        "relative_strength": -13.169662,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -51.509416,
        "energy": 26.68169,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.614667,
          17.664727,
          17.869,
          18.081419
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 17.54,
        "volume": 435455,
        "typical_volume": 450948.75,
        "trend": 18.373333,
        "fair_value": 17.615705,
        "relative_strength": -13.278745,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -48.794873,
        "energy": 31.610303,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.53,
          17.650182,
          17.824905,
          18.023355
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 18.46,
        "volume": 561900,
        "typical_volume": 442345.4,
        "trend": 18.368,
        "fair_value": 17.646731,
        "relative_strength": -11.573444,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -21.686439,
        "energy": 12.220703,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.797333,
          17.796182,
          17.86781,
          18.028946
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}