{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fe833a97-d020-4283-9e40-6be24a7d8790", "symbol": "MAK", "name": "Maternus-Kliniken Aktiengesellschaft", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.993, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.797, "architecture_energy": 15.952, "architecture_maturity": 34.991, "architecture_confidence": 82.274, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.35, "rotation_up": 30.57, "upward_expansion": 21.42, "deceleration": 36.56, "rotation_down": 31.87, "downward_expansion": 57.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.963333, 0.948182, 0.96631, 0.981247 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.94, "trend_reference": 0.993333, "distance_from_trend": -0.053691, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.688718, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.443365, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.811857, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.010526, "excess_performance": -0.075166, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.053691, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028683, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.443365, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018397, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.158119, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040394, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.010526, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.544636, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 303, "relative_activity": 0.026356, "balance": 2.544636, "dry_up": 0.123236, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109247, "annualized_volatility": 0.55061, "from_high_reference": -0.913761, "from_low_reference": 0.119048 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.993333, "fair_value_reference": 1.688718, "structural_low": 0.84, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": -0.029393, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.568182, "median_excess_return": -0.034833, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 1.460526, "worst_return": -0.219048, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.053571, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.053, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 1.135135, "worst_return": -0.282828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.137226, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.159709, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.515152, "worst_return": -0.46831, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.148936, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056604, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.132184, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051282, 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"gate": "down", "direction": -52.749082, "energy": 46.142146, "activity_lines": [ 0.930667, 0.935909, 0.981833, 0.990312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.905, "volume": 665, "typical_volume": 11984.5, "trend": 0.993667, "fair_value": 1.735288, "relative_strength": -15.955218, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.653568, "energy": 48.178493, "activity_lines": [ 0.925, 0.927636, 0.972762, 0.984366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.01, "volume": 4184, "typical_volume": 11602.75, "trend": 0.994833, "fair_value": 1.724199, "relative_strength": -6.649406, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.766649, "energy": 14.792735, "activity_lines": [ 0.953, 0.940545, 0.973905, 0.985419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.985, "volume": 515, "typical_volume": 11628.5, "trend": 0.994833, "fair_value": 1.706667, "relative_strength": -10.142531, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.957286, "energy": 17.52549, "activity_lines": [ 0.968, 0.948545, 0.972357, 0.984785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.94, "volume": 303, "typical_volume": 11496.25, "trend": 0.993333, "fair_value": 1.688718, "relative_strength": -15.811857, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.797234, "energy": 15.952445, "activity_lines": [ 0.963333, 0.948182, 0.96631, 0.981247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }