{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fe86b766-420b-473a-aae0-6746e53db527", "symbol": "SNL", "name": "Supply Network Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 75.033, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 32.633, "architecture_energy": 41.895, "architecture_maturity": 18.868, "architecture_confidence": 70.562, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.91, "rotation_up": 61.04, "upward_expansion": 49.32, "deceleration": 20.12, "rotation_down": 19.35, "downward_expansion": 24.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.954001, 33.254546, 32.557952, 32.574968 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 35.700001, "trend_reference": 32.877459, "distance_from_trend": 0.08585, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.10392, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.270285, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.704937, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.028206, "excess_performance": -0.035499, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.08585, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004375, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.270285, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052169, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.017049, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087903, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.028206, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.918647, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 252872, "relative_activity": 1.183729, "balance": 1.918647, "dry_up": 1.571642, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068789, "annualized_volatility": 0.287365, "from_high_reference": -0.12365, "from_low_reference": 0.27957 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.877459, "fair_value_reference": 28.10392, "structural_low": 27.9, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.001061, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007996, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.068817, "worst_return": -0.097772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.05196, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.023666, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.129032, "worst_return": -0.12041, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.074706, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.086849, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.194368, "worst_return": -0.111169, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.41859, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.158986, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.210639, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.112914, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.122703, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.050824, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.024774, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.154345, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.107682, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.110075, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 13.196921, "volume": 16419, "typical_volume": 36298.5, "trend": 12.399567, "fair_value": 8.470978, "relative_strength": 14.463084, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", 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15.802873, "activity_lines": [ 32.233999, 31.923818, 31.946542, 32.316161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.34, "volume": 425192, "typical_volume": 235094.8, "trend": 32.683038, "fair_value": 27.708249, "relative_strength": -3.581602, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.579777, "energy": 6.971001, "activity_lines": [ 32.205333, 32.045272, 31.958325, 32.293438 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.060001, "volume": 204288, "typical_volume": 223053.15, "trend": 32.727205, "fair_value": 27.832598, "relative_strength": -0.873612, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.449947, "energy": 5.072978, "activity_lines": [ 32.427333, 32.297273, 32.051852, 32.317758 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.810001, "volume": 460605, "typical_volume": 217597.75, "trend": 32.796042, "fair_value": 27.961993, "relative_strength": -0.750573, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.960732, "energy": 16.749491, "activity_lines": [ 32.926, 32.646364, 32.220666, 32.387616 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.700001, "volume": 252872, "typical_volume": 213623.25, "trend": 32.877459, "fair_value": 28.10392, "relative_strength": 1.704937, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.633471, "energy": 41.895327, "activity_lines": [ 33.954001, 33.254546, 32.557952, 32.574968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }