{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fe8b799b-3237-4d12-917f-edfd4f48a486", "symbol": "LMT", "name": "Lockheed Martin Corporation", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 56.03, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 26.54, "architecture_energy": 36.886, "architecture_maturity": 36.454, "architecture_confidence": 73.315, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.32, "rotation_up": 64.18, "upward_expansion": 43.0, "deceleration": 31.8, "rotation_down": 19.48, "downward_expansion": 22.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 494.200006, 481.125459, 470.722535, 480.540569 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 502.200012, "trend_reference": 493.232674, "distance_from_trend": 0.018181, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 425.215289, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.181049, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.37395, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.020208, "excess_performance": -0.194454, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.018181, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05053, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.181049, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.154107, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.093739, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062031, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.020208, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.550069, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 244, "relative_activity": 1.734186, "balance": 1.550069, "dry_up": 2.080668, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046018, "annualized_volatility": 0.344816, "from_high_reference": -0.166013, "from_low_reference": 0.426883 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 493.232674, "fair_value_reference": 425.215289, "structural_low": 423.710721, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.013067, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.001855, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.109589, "worst_return": -0.079169, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.013628, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.004331, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.120184, "worst_return": -0.117024, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.315893, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.24545, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.445563, "worst_return": -0.142795, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 161.35, "trend": 483.338864, "fair_value": 422.164789, "relative_strength": -16.466875, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.018424, "energy": 31.556515, "activity_lines": [ 459.740002, 457.740497, 466.03837, 479.212718 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 455.700012, "volume": 97, "typical_volume": 163.4, "trend": 485.321245, "fair_value": 422.691238, "relative_strength": -14.015977, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.535827, "energy": 27.315197, "activity_lines": [ 458.306673, 458.107861, 463.192684, 477.429566 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 510.0, "volume": 609, "typical_volume": 146.65, "trend": 488.855555, "fair_value": 423.573964, "relative_strength": -5.177342, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 8.477792, "energy": 18.289348, "activity_lines": [ 475.946671, 467.867383, 465.912222, 479.021744 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 502.0, "volume": 221, "typical_volume": 141.8, "trend": 491.802664, "fair_value": 424.414781, "relative_strength": -6.669121, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.881328, "energy": 21.928446, "activity_lines": [ 486.653337, 474.942729, 468.162705, 479.869773 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 502.200012, "volume": 244, "typical_volume": 140.7, "trend": 493.232674, "fair_value": 425.215289, "relative_strength": -9.37395, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.540485, "energy": 36.886096, "activity_lines": [ 494.200006, 481.125459, 470.722535, 480.540569 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }