{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fe8d0ecb-cf08-4cc7-bbe9-922c031ed18e", "symbol": "VOLV-A", "name": "AB Volvo (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.849, "architecture_energy": 85.945, "architecture_maturity": 38.153, "architecture_confidence": 81.112, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.38, "rotation_up": 82.71, "upward_expansion": 98.93, "deceleration": 39.06, "rotation_down": 8.68, "downward_expansion": 20.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 354.773336, 345.258183, 334.885161, 329.01781 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 356.0, "trend_reference": 323.075425, "distance_from_trend": 0.10191, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 262.233102, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.357571, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.921873, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.070187, "excess_performance": 0.008693, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.10191, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068267, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.357571, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064272, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.059219, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015018, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.070187, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.894978, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 482018, "relative_activity": 1.061426, "balance": 1.894978, "dry_up": 1.069486, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035523, "annualized_volatility": 0.283869, "from_high_reference": -0.048637, "from_low_reference": 0.511006 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 323.075425, "fair_value_reference": 262.233102, "structural_low": 265.775806, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.009881, "positive_rate": 0.517241, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": 0.005544, "regime_survival": 0.724138, "best_return": 0.142572, "worst_return": -0.097701, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.043614, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.013806, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.185691, "worst_return": -0.165329, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.102424, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.056261, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.28481, "worst_return": -0.088229, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 335.293329, 329.461818, 323.932595, 321.234965 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 355.0, "volume": 628777, "typical_volume": 509127.75, "trend": 318.464154, "fair_value": 260.147609, "relative_strength": 9.550679, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.46293, "energy": 85.270987, "activity_lines": [ 342.97333, 334.810908, 327.436524, 323.751347 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 365.200012, "volume": 468214, "typical_volume": 495357.65, "trend": 321.105687, "fair_value": 261.212767, "relative_strength": 10.865196, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.14464, "energy": 91.384377, "activity_lines": [ 351.760002, 341.316365, 331.725849, 326.766564 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 356.0, "volume": 482018, "typical_volume": 454122.85, "trend": 323.075425, "fair_value": 262.233102, "relative_strength": 5.921873, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.848874, "energy": 85.944727, "activity_lines": [ 354.773336, 345.258183, 334.885161, 329.01781 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }