{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fe90fef6-9551-4c58-9133-0a5a595a7990", "symbol": "QXO", "name": "QXO, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.535, "architecture_energy": 61.98, "architecture_maturity": 34.835, "architecture_confidence": 95.801, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.01, "rotation_up": 20.6, "upward_expansion": 12.36, "deceleration": 42.62, "rotation_down": 62.15, "downward_expansion": 88.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.308799, 14.793463, 16.063998, 17.372556 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 16.16, "trend_reference": 19.256097, "distance_from_trend": -0.160785, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 34.934904, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.537425, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.629007, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.297697, "excess_performance": -0.423322, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.160785, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075929, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.537425, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067308, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.26629, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075785, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.297697, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.550887, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 104084679, "relative_activity": 1.12174, "balance": 0.550887, "dry_up": 1.17394, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.1284, "annualized_volatility": 0.664843, "from_high_reference": -0.414705, "from_low_reference": 0.287526 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.256097, "fair_value_reference": 34.934904, "structural_low": 12.551206, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.002, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.03907, "regime_survival": 0.884615, "best_return": 0.176707, "worst_return": -0.823357, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.076017, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.044552, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.722826, "worst_return": -0.808235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.082302, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.013256, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.671698, "worst_return": -0.825518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.692225, "volume": 128996741, "typical_volume": 82662346.7, "trend": 20.039494, "fair_value": 35.114585, "relative_strength": -37.066742, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.913262, "energy": 72.435642, "activity_lines": [ 14.885734, 15.65491, 17.128848, 18.46268 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.998105, "volume": 110409571, "typical_volume": 86595125.2, "trend": 19.764764, "fair_value": 35.049593, "relative_strength": -39.200605, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.735202, "energy": 85.214618, "activity_lines": [ 14.016781, 15.097023, 16.625073, 18.008397 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.3, "volume": 92222228, "typical_volume": 89595776.7, "trend": 19.550764, "fair_value": 34.99385, "relative_strength": -37.900383, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.030027, "energy": 84.115071, "activity_lines": [ 13.565921, 14.654607, 16.191964, 17.591315 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.16, "volume": 104084679, "typical_volume": 92788633.15, "trend": 19.256097, "fair_value": 34.934904, "relative_strength": -26.629007, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.535014, "energy": 61.979983, "activity_lines": [ 14.308799, 14.793463, 16.063998, 17.372556 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }