{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fe940d85-0b42-4497-862e-0643a53f6270", "symbol": "QVMS", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR II S&P SMALLCAP 600 QVM MULTI FACTOR ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.006, "architecture_energy": 60.145, "architecture_maturity": 79.679, "architecture_confidence": 57.327, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.04, "rotation_up": 48.97, "upward_expansion": 78.88, "deceleration": 73.88, "rotation_down": 27.9, "downward_expansion": 10.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.485393, 34.366555, 33.586583, 32.735797 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 35.0435, "trend_reference": 31.759276, "distance_from_trend": 0.10341, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.464046, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.324193, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.915389, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.13125, "excess_performance": 0.005625, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.10341, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065329, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.324193, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053886, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.039154, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01164, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.13125, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.555938, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3218, "relative_activity": 0.451108, "balance": 0.555938, "dry_up": 0.634502, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02666, "annualized_volatility": 0.152058, "from_high_reference": -0.01035, "from_low_reference": 0.352632 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.759276, "fair_value_reference": 26.464046, "structural_low": 28.256303, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.008299, "positive_rate": 0.68, "directional_follow_through": 0.68, "median_excess_return": -0.013065, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.049426, "worst_return": -0.082004, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.012197, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.049353, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.183456, "worst_return": -0.075038, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.099657, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.051031, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.107741, "worst_return": -0.020124, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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26.16781, "relative_strength": 4.923906, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.648421, "energy": 84.517994, "activity_lines": [ 34.342661, 33.717704, 32.657646, 31.928342 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.3745, "volume": 10236, "typical_volume": 9661.5, "trend": 31.2056, "fair_value": 26.241745, "relative_strength": 6.664428, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.150404, "energy": 79.664268, "activity_lines": [ 34.387888, 33.932419, 32.91751, 32.145083 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.0633, "volume": 2351, "typical_volume": 7554.25, "trend": 31.381108, "fair_value": 26.311945, "relative_strength": 6.111597, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.349054, "energy": 62.307647, "activity_lines": [ 34.293593, 34.054402, 33.128816, 32.32945 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.2117, "volume": 2300, "typical_volume": 7182.0, "trend": 31.575716, "fair_value": 26.384391, "relative_strength": 5.203354, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.359059, "energy": 55.897894, "activity_lines": [ 34.232033, 34.152968, 33.33147, 32.512069 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.0435, "volume": 3218, "typical_volume": 7133.55, "trend": 31.759276, "fair_value": 26.464046, "relative_strength": 3.915389, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.006099, "energy": 60.145468, "activity_lines": [ 34.485393, 34.366555, 33.586583, 32.735797 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }