{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fe9492ab-5e3b-4a38-ba7c-4afc017e6ae5", "symbol": "002047", "name": "Shenzhen Bauing Construction Holding Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.055, "architecture_energy": 88.405, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.459, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.07, "rotation_up": 8.31, "upward_expansion": 21.96, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 83.63, "downward_expansion": 99.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.224667, 3.644364, 4.204714, 4.456946 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 3.18, "trend_reference": 4.616667, "distance_from_trend": -0.311191, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.859615, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.112038, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.329653, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.24105, "excess_performance": -0.24845, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.311191, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013983, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.112038, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.898939, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.203297, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.610943, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.24105, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.38074, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 163453078, "relative_activity": 1.341137, "balance": 0.38074, "dry_up": 1.094799, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.170295, "annualized_volatility": 0.624275, "from_high_reference": -0.479542, "from_low_reference": 0.647668 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.616667, "fair_value_reference": 2.859615, "structural_low": 2.87, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.024163, "positive_rate": 0.607143, "directional_follow_through": 0.392857, "median_excess_return": 0.004215, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.299625, "worst_return": -0.312195, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.034188, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.006853, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.751553, "worst_return": -0.252033, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.078652, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.286539, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.855422, "worst_return": -0.345528, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.096386, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05291, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044554, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016807, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-04-17", 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"activity_lines": [ 4.544667, 4.722182, 4.941952, 4.882086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.0, "volume": 124036089, "typical_volume": 128220171.95, "trend": 4.702, "fair_value": 2.859038, "relative_strength": -3.392638, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.199149, "energy": 39.678754, "activity_lines": [ 4.370667, 4.556, 4.844048, 4.837312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.4, "volume": 110745700, "typical_volume": 128163067.5, "trend": 4.683, "fair_value": 2.860513, "relative_strength": -10.228607, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -56.824463, "energy": 64.2279, "activity_lines": [ 4.047333, 4.303455, 4.690238, 4.753312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.13, "volume": 134372822, "typical_volume": 127331000.85, "trend": 4.657333, "fair_value": 2.860064, "relative_strength": -18.015201, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.975317, "energy": 86.87995, "activity_lines": [ 3.674, 4.041636, 4.518143, 4.653118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.07, "volume": 125149814, "typical_volume": 122273117.75, "trend": 4.633333, "fair_value": 2.859679, "relative_strength": -18.687724, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.039469, "energy": 90.232816, "activity_lines": [ 3.374, 3.813455, 4.349619, 4.55071 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.18, "volume": 163453078, "typical_volume": 121876536.0, "trend": 4.616667, "fair_value": 2.859615, "relative_strength": -20.329653, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.054653, "energy": 88.405164, "activity_lines": [ 3.224667, 3.644364, 4.204714, 4.456946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }