{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fe96d5cb-e2ea-4c9f-8df4-acdf3fdaaef2", "symbol": "ALSOG", "name": "Sogeclair SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 79.587, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 7.054, "architecture_energy": 11.923, "architecture_maturity": 22.159, "architecture_confidence": 76.665, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.28, "rotation_up": 24.96, "upward_expansion": 47.19, "deceleration": 78.48, "rotation_down": 38.05, "downward_expansion": 34.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.753333, 35.44, 35.489522, 34.962301 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 34.099998, "trend_reference": 33.651719, "distance_from_trend": 0.013321, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.756743, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.498457, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.253609, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.166113, "excess_performance": 0.112801, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013321, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115363, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.498457, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177541, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.062536, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.211061, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.166113, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.911921, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 910, "relative_activity": 0.185656, "balance": 2.911921, "dry_up": 0.479848, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069795, "annualized_volatility": 0.596312, "from_high_reference": -0.164286, "from_low_reference": 0.539474 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.651719, "fair_value_reference": 22.756743, "structural_low": 28.173789, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.016297, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.021285, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.240642, "worst_return": -0.245614, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.071275, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.099346, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.214689, "worst_return": -0.203947, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.260621, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.293567, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.518835, "worst_return": -0.122807, "sufficient": true }, { 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}, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 37.5, "volume": 1520, "typical_volume": 6303.8, "trend": 32.414198, "fair_value": 22.302445, "relative_strength": 23.831416, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.816041, "energy": 57.883918, "activity_lines": [ 36.68, 36.046496, 35.570796, 34.421023 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.299999, "volume": 2674, "typical_volume": 6082.0, "trend": 32.861842, "fair_value": 22.433817, "relative_strength": 25.773894, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.857266, "energy": 65.033281, "activity_lines": [ 37.46, 36.509091, 35.897504, 34.800752 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.900002, "volume": 2893, "typical_volume": 5894.5, "trend": 33.196154, "fair_value": 22.544832, "relative_strength": 13.733292, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.916936, "energy": 50.523614, "activity_lines": [ 36.753334, 36.303637, 35.861434, 34.932246 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.0, "volume": 2931, "typical_volume": 5408.0, "trend": 33.437987, "fair_value": 22.648268, "relative_strength": 5.561608, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.043696, "energy": 11.150316, "activity_lines": [ 35.46, 35.738182, 35.623948, 34.919591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.099998, "volume": 910, "typical_volume": 4901.55, "trend": 33.651719, "fair_value": 22.756743, "relative_strength": 6.253609, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.054464, "energy": 11.923062, "activity_lines": [ 34.753333, 35.44, 35.489522, 34.962301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }