{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fe995753-3f3b-464e-8e7f-ad57a74b545e", "symbol": "688101", "name": "Suntar Environmental Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.192, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.184, "architecture_energy": 48.915, "architecture_maturity": 11.318, "architecture_confidence": 88.091, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.57, "rotation_up": 12.62, "upward_expansion": 9.9, "deceleration": 40.38, "rotation_down": 54.89, "downward_expansion": 78.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.628, 16.080882, 16.937916, 17.080982 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.64, "trend_reference": 17.214759, "distance_from_trend": -0.091477, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.124782, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.107274, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.69558, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.085613, "excess_performance": -0.042409, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.091477, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010934, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.107274, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.413879, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.066956, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.269777, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.085613, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.244231, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18131639, "relative_activity": 0.730767, "balance": 1.244231, "dry_up": 1.746704, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.131832, "annualized_volatility": 0.498709, "from_high_reference": -0.297751, "from_low_reference": 0.1053 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.214759, "fair_value_reference": 14.124782, "structural_low": 14.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.010011, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.023484, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.157512, "worst_return": -0.116338, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.074699, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": 0.066132, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.161143, "worst_return": -0.277206, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.053981, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.036041, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.282575, "worst_return": -0.160733, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 14.09475, "relative_strength": -11.604285, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.252953, "energy": 25.801134, "activity_lines": [ 16.19062, 16.588722, 17.294624, 17.314019 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.26, "volume": 23570486, "typical_volume": 24406235.9, "trend": 17.235855, "fair_value": 14.108424, "relative_strength": -6.428612, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.857044, "energy": 43.593851, "activity_lines": [ 15.825108, 16.272984, 17.093477, 17.18394 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.64, "volume": 18131639, "typical_volume": 24811807.95, "trend": 17.214759, "fair_value": 14.124782, "relative_strength": -6.69558, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.183694, "energy": 48.914948, "activity_lines": [ 15.628, 16.080882, 16.937916, 17.080982 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }