{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fe9a54ee-df24-4e54-917d-a92d875b77f9", "symbol": "LDRH", "name": "ISHARES IBONDS 1-5 YEAR HIGH YIELD AND INCOME LADDER ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.117, "architecture_energy": 15.101, "architecture_maturity": 16.503, "architecture_confidence": 78.235, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.82, "rotation_up": 26.97, "upward_expansion": 46.7, "deceleration": 81.26, "rotation_down": 27.49, "downward_expansion": 24.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.424785, 24.439383, 24.447068, 24.414002 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 24.51, "trend_reference": 24.366309, "distance_from_trend": 0.005897, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.596818, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.038699, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.688053, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.009947, "excess_performance": -0.115678, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005897, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005972, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.038699, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003193, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.096881, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006011, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.009947, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.158205, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20032, "relative_activity": 0.470239, "balance": 5.158205, "dry_up": 0.606589, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005385, "annualized_volatility": 0.025306, "from_high_reference": -0.005413, "from_low_reference": 0.046101 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.366309, "fair_value_reference": 23.596818, "structural_low": 24.004224, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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24.481066, 24.43972, 24.390197 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 24.404657, "volume": 34141, "typical_volume": 40175.2, "trend": 24.329907, "fair_value": 23.559653, "relative_strength": -8.902724, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.439015, "energy": 25.536195, "activity_lines": [ 24.468278, 24.470064, 24.441678, 24.39585 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.424551, "volume": 37221, "typical_volume": 41348.25, "trend": 24.341677, "fair_value": 23.569371, "relative_strength": -7.153777, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.25386, "energy": 16.892263, "activity_lines": [ 24.446435, 24.463599, 24.444948, 24.401956 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.325082, "volume": 23658, "typical_volume": 41765.1, "trend": 24.348205, "fair_value": 23.577768, "relative_strength": -6.768426, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.086187, "energy": 15.776071, "activity_lines": [ 24.396368, 24.43932, 24.43799, 24.400885 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.398191, "volume": 22451, "typical_volume": 41900.25, "trend": 24.356685, "fair_value": 23.586783, "relative_strength": -7.227358, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.920615, "energy": 16.524935, "activity_lines": [ 24.386918, 24.428967, 24.437802, 24.40411 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.51, "volume": 20032, "typical_volume": 42599.65, "trend": 24.366309, "fair_value": 23.596818, "relative_strength": -9.688053, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.117047, "energy": 15.100991, "activity_lines": [ 24.424785, 24.439383, 24.447068, 24.414002 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }