{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fe9c191a-0282-4f42-b8bf-3f3f9af1da17", "symbol": "PWP", "name": "Perella Weinberg Partners", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.552, "architecture_energy": 16.423, "architecture_maturity": 52.075, "architecture_confidence": 77.162, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.01, "rotation_up": 31.91, "upward_expansion": 22.28, "deceleration": 39.84, "rotation_down": 27.19, "downward_expansion": 56.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.786667, 16.415273, 16.947473, 17.43712 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 17.5, "trend_reference": 18.346923, "distance_from_trend": -0.046162, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.33049, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.009781, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.248109, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.241936, "excess_performance": -0.42939, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.046162, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031011, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.009781, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088943, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.192481, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026544, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.241936, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.023731, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6576021, "relative_activity": 1.127817, "balance": 1.023731, "dry_up": 1.088572, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121946, "annualized_volatility": 0.477501, "from_high_reference": -0.319862, "from_low_reference": 0.240255 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.346923, "fair_value_reference": 17.33049, "structural_low": 14.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.080548, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": 0.050004, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.255172, "worst_return": -0.096994, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.008197, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.03349, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.354047, "worst_return": -0.065052, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.289918, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.064859, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.365716, "worst_return": -0.08218, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.984429, "energy": 44.78702, "activity_lines": [ 15.831333, 16.201625, 17.288908, 17.888089 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.89, "volume": 4775078, "typical_volume": 5474823.05, "trend": 18.44369, "fair_value": 17.199601, "relative_strength": -25.606698, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.067574, "energy": 37.426596, "activity_lines": [ 15.831333, 16.051134, 17.117934, 17.720369 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.67, "volume": 5025373, "typical_volume": 5511122.3, "trend": 18.379467, "fair_value": 17.239214, "relative_strength": -24.834775, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.042575, "energy": 37.91223, "activity_lines": [ 15.742667, 15.904521, 16.938115, 17.541421 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.65, "volume": 9012307, "typical_volume": 5751510.1, "trend": 18.387199, "fair_value": 17.28579, "relative_strength": -15.168629, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.653377, "energy": 23.830741, "activity_lines": [ 16.326, 16.164879, 16.953811, 17.494359 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.5, "volume": 6576021, "typical_volume": 5830753.15, "trend": 18.346923, "fair_value": 17.33049, "relative_strength": -19.248109, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.551665, "energy": 16.423276, "activity_lines": [ 16.786667, 16.415273, 16.947473, 17.43712 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }