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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.54, "architecture_energy": 35.455, "architecture_maturity": 71.512, "architecture_confidence": 64.572, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.14, "rotation_up": 42.61, "upward_expansion": 69.12, "deceleration": 62.5, "rotation_down": 26.14, "downward_expansion": 16.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.418667, 58.896593, 54.897536, 50.72305 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 53.41, "trend_reference": 46.725981, "distance_from_trend": 0.143047, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 54.819281, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.025708, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.502588, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.275617, "excess_performance": 0.088163, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.143047, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092177, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.025708, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.187637, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.075026, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.145088, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.275617, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.885197, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20131047, "relative_activity": 1.757885, "balance": 0.885197, "dry_up": 1.065955, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.132725, "annualized_volatility": 0.642883, "from_high_reference": -0.182083, "from_low_reference": 0.879605 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.725981, "fair_value_reference": 54.819281, "structural_low": 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.579104, "energy": 70.743729, "activity_lines": [ 59.875395, 57.305367, 50.434115, 47.458265 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 58.23, "volume": 9023744, "typical_volume": 11081698.4, "trend": 45.848126, "fair_value": 54.969522, "relative_strength": 23.884885, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.502198, "energy": 59.225501, "activity_lines": [ 59.687295, 58.042415, 51.658441, 48.282508 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 60.45, "volume": 8897381, "typical_volume": 11133083.9, "trend": 46.265084, "fair_value": 54.918534, "relative_strength": 30.163968, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.067318, "energy": 55.901487, "activity_lines": [ 59.969333, 58.926572, 53.007637, 49.224564 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 62.84, "volume": 10776491, "typical_volume": 11037716.1, "trend": 46.758381, "fair_value": 54.90151, "relative_strength": 33.708015, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.56531, "energy": 54.787465, "activity_lines": [ 60.83, 59.925131, 54.471011, 50.293914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.41, "volume": 20131047, "typical_volume": 11451854.0, "trend": 46.725981, "fair_value": 54.819281, "relative_strength": 7.502588, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.539877, "energy": 35.45521, "activity_lines": [ 58.418667, 58.896593, 54.897536, 50.72305 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }