{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fea1162e-0591-42c1-b5bb-ec234c007cfd", "symbol": "PDI", "name": "Predictive Discovery Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.246, "architecture_energy": 52.198, "architecture_maturity": 11.414, "architecture_confidence": 76.753, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.7, "rotation_up": 14.59, "upward_expansion": 10.06, "deceleration": 40.94, "rotation_down": 60.63, "downward_expansion": 83.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.685, 0.709273, 0.760262, 0.787785 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.76, "trend_reference": 0.815167, "distance_from_trend": -0.067675, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.414135, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.835152, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.322611, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.020134, "excess_performance": -0.043571, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.067675, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022366, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.835152, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.749463, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.013226, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.493238, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.020134, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.864742, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 57662675, "relative_activity": 0.663348, "balance": 1.864742, "dry_up": 0.709011, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.165233, "annualized_volatility": 0.837309, "from_high_reference": -0.272727, "from_low_reference": 1.111111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.815167, "fair_value_reference": 0.414135, "structural_low": 0.605, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.007463, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00561, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.421053, "worst_return": -0.162162, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.056653, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.253731, "worst_return": -0.030303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.205128, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.153113, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.373134, "worst_return": -0.255556, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.157895, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.4, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.057971, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.131579, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.103896, "active": false }, { 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"fair_value": 0.40734, "relative_strength": -10.110173, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.127837, "energy": 69.571164, "activity_lines": [ 0.663667, 0.718091, 0.777381, 0.801581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.665, "volume": 73389810, "typical_volume": 95789197.7, "trend": 0.818333, "fair_value": 0.410513, "relative_strength": -7.832787, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.239082, "energy": 68.301635, "activity_lines": [ 0.656667, 0.704545, 0.763929, 0.791548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.76, "volume": 57662675, "typical_volume": 86926785.15, "trend": 0.815167, "fair_value": 0.414135, "relative_strength": 1.322611, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.246445, "energy": 52.198427, "activity_lines": [ 0.685, 0.709273, 0.760262, 0.787785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }