{ "ticker": { "uuid": "feaeef0f-f808-4c27-9b79-1279dbcbf234", "symbol": "278530", "name": "Samsung Kodex 200 Total Return ETF", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 67.699, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -11.881, "architecture_energy": 29.046, "architecture_maturity": 63.796, "architecture_confidence": 81.795, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.29, "rotation_up": 14.05, "upward_expansion": 42.93, "deceleration": 87.88, "rotation_down": 53.48, "downward_expansion": 39.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 38058.0, 41565.181818, 42460.238095, 40218.709677 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 35525.0, "trend_reference": 36811.5, "distance_from_trend": -0.034948, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18001.217949, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.973478, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.425674, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.313551, "excess_performance": 0.083723, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034948, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.262729, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.973478, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.764667, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.064257, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032023, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.313551, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.823335, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8946728, "relative_activity": 1.254965, "balance": 0.823335, "dry_up": 1.754665, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.152688, "annualized_volatility": 0.516564, "from_high_reference": -0.355205, "from_low_reference": 1.372287 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36811.5, "fair_value_reference": 18001.217949, "structural_low": 27020.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.04243, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.001763, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.310934, "worst_return": -0.013002, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.07446, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.014713, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.370927, "worst_return": 0.008274, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.080412, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.025864, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.112053, "worst_return": 0.04877, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.067935, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002908, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.043093, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055178, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010938, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.085789, "active": false }, { "regime": 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38810.0, "volume": 13251074, "typical_volume": 6925658.25, "trend": 36430.5, "fair_value": 17847.948718, "relative_strength": 10.662421, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.169804, "energy": 24.038757, "activity_lines": [ 40067.333333, 43344.363636, 42926.547619, 40277.129032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35525.0, "volume": 8946728, "typical_volume": 7129066.75, "trend": 36811.5, "fair_value": 18001.217949, "relative_strength": 6.425674, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -11.880787, "energy": 29.046158, "activity_lines": [ 38058.0, 41565.181818, 42460.238095, 40218.709677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }