{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "feb85cfe-419b-4794-9921-a921ac64cdfe",
    "symbol": "E500",
    "name": "Invesco S&P 500 UCITS ETF (EUR Hdg)",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 72.277,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 83.336,
    "architecture_energy": 57.978,
    "architecture_maturity": 63.345,
    "architecture_confidence": 61.06,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 32.39,
        "rotation_up": 52.07,
        "upward_expansion": 79.58,
        "deceleration": 69.56,
        "rotation_down": 27.53,
        "downward_expansion": 8.58
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        57.327334,
        57.06491,
        56.598715,
        55.566302
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 58.830002,
    "trend_reference": 54.419667,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.081043,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 45.585737,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.290535,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -4.96933,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.117379,
    "excess_performance": -0.053513,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.081043,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.030441,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.290535,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.006118,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.049693,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.023356,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.117379,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.290583,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 55745,
      "relative_activity": 1.086718,
      "balance": 2.290583,
      "dry_up": 0.911853,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.019025,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.132263,
      "from_high_reference": -0.003557,
      "from_low_reference": 0.20925
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 54.419667,
      "fair_value_reference": 45.585737,
      "structural_low": 48.650002,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 38,
        "median_return": 0.013521,
        "positive_rate": 0.710526,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.710526,
        "median_excess_return": 0.001332,
        "regime_survival": 0.789474,
        "best_return": 0.063563,
        "worst_return": -0.090968,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": 0.026765,
        "positive_rate": 0.769231,
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        "median_excess_return": -0.007374,
        "regime_survival": 0.615385,
        "best_return": 0.123114,
        "worst_return": -0.071549,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.070243,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.000378,
        "regime_survival": 0.625,
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        "worst_return": -0.166245,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "positive_rate": 0.75,
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        "median_excess_return": -0.015842,
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        "best_return": 0.197812,
        "worst_return": -0.105654,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "end": "2024-08-09",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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      {
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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      },
      {
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.01227,
        "active": false
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "fair_value": 43.716314,
        "relative_strength": -2.633706,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 66256.3,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 71325.95,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "relative_strength": -2.523325,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "fair_value": 44.746218,
        "relative_strength": -6.326308,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 51502.45,
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        "fair_value": 44.889744,
        "relative_strength": -7.21777,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "fair_value": 45.030417,
        "relative_strength": -6.125312,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 32718,
        "typical_volume": 50732.3,
        "trend": 53.975334,
        "fair_value": 45.165801,
        "relative_strength": -5.576303,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.377078,
        "energy": 54.453747,
        "activity_lines": [
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          55.91281,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 56.529999,
        "volume": 32934,
        "typical_volume": 49783.05,
        "trend": 54.1,
        "fair_value": 45.297917,
        "relative_strength": -5.632857,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "direction": 49.981536,
        "energy": 48.530174,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 56.330002,
        "volume": 65703,
        "typical_volume": 51114.9,
        "trend": 54.232,
        "fair_value": 45.432019,
        "relative_strength": -6.446109,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.549399,
        "energy": 39.867295,
        "activity_lines": [
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          55.269656
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 58.830002,
        "volume": 55745,
        "typical_volume": 51296.65,
        "trend": 54.419667,
        "fair_value": 45.585737,
        "relative_strength": -4.96933,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 83.335873,
        "energy": 57.977959,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}