{ "ticker": { "uuid": "feb9e8c2-5ee3-42a4-8fc0-b6a09caeab18", "symbol": "PROK", "name": "ProKidney Corp.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.05, "architecture_energy": 58.935, "architecture_maturity": 66.814, "architecture_confidence": 90.031, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.84, "rotation_up": 14.31, "upward_expansion": 15.0, "deceleration": 35.37, "rotation_down": 64.87, "downward_expansion": 86.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.590667, 1.676364, 1.741429, 1.805849 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.64, "trend_reference": 1.896333, "distance_from_trend": -0.135173, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.18489, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.24939, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -34.488729, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.122995, "excess_performance": -0.310448, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.135173, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103106, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.24939, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.127425, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.344887, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06392, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.122995, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.806404, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3023676, "relative_activity": 0.581686, "balance": 0.806404, "dry_up": 0.908629, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.158865, "annualized_volatility": 0.655895, "from_high_reference": -0.528722, "from_low_reference": 0.131034 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.896333, "fair_value_reference": 2.18489, "structural_low": 1.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.074848, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.055025, "regime_survival": 0.894737, "best_return": 3.919994, "worst_return": -0.429238, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.091306, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.161836, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 2.982804, "worst_return": -0.523554, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.200427, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.080752, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 2.755216, "worst_return": -0.598528, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"close": 1.76, "volume": 5653949, "typical_volume": 4889439.2, "trend": 2.002, "fair_value": 2.4613, "relative_strength": -34.337296, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.317918, "energy": 16.974073, "activity_lines": [ 1.847333, 1.816545, 1.849381, 1.90529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.62, "volume": 6835478, "typical_volume": 5088146.55, "trend": 1.977, "fair_value": 2.397326, "relative_strength": -35.833864, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.80321, "energy": 25.965039, "activity_lines": [ 1.781333, 1.784, 1.821714, 1.880645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.5, "volume": 4948169, "typical_volume": 5171941.0, "trend": 1.942667, "fair_value": 2.330403, "relative_strength": -38.436836, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.53667, "energy": 41.687352, "activity_lines": [ 1.676667, 1.734, 1.785571, 1.849871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.54, "volume": 4085341, "typical_volume": 5232072.2, "trend": 1.919667, "fair_value": 2.257326, "relative_strength": -36.150366, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.363287, "energy": 60.43829, "activity_lines": [ 1.607333, 1.694182, 1.757048, 1.823892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.64, "volume": 3023676, "typical_volume": 5198122.55, "trend": 1.896333, "fair_value": 2.18489, "relative_strength": -34.488729, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.04965, "energy": 58.93541, "activity_lines": [ 1.590667, 1.676364, 1.741429, 1.805849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }