{ "ticker": { "uuid": "febb5524-6f4c-4197-8dba-116650ebedcc", "symbol": "EXEC", "name": "Execus S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.151, "architecture_energy": 28.745, "architecture_maturity": 83.026, "architecture_confidence": 90.343, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.32, "rotation_up": 24.86, "upward_expansion": 14.2, "deceleration": 44.78, "rotation_down": 39.07, "downward_expansion": 64.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.060667, 1.058364, 1.08581, 1.109527 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.02, "trend_reference": 1.148333, "distance_from_trend": -0.111756, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.716314, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.405703, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.332523, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.170732, "excess_performance": -0.341623, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.111756, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066143, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.405703, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047716, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.293325, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08507, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.170732, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.259644, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 221000, "relative_activity": 1.492739, "balance": 0.259644, "dry_up": 1.07565, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073906, "annualized_volatility": 0.222964, "from_high_reference": -0.389222, "from_low_reference": 0.0625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.148333, "fair_value_reference": 1.716314, "structural_low": 0.96, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.017663, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.028041, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.092437, "worst_return": -0.06087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.02521, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.022666, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.134454, "worst_return": -0.084034, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.117647, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.018491, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.117647, "worst_return": 0.117647, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.109244, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.396255, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.109244, "worst_return": -0.109244, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029412, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034483, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.092437, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.107692, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042254, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.062992, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.142857, "active": 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"close": 1.02, "volume": 221000, "typical_volume": 148050.0, "trend": 1.148333, "fair_value": 1.716314, "relative_strength": -29.332523, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.151482, "energy": 28.744817, "activity_lines": [ 1.060667, 1.058364, 1.08581, 1.109527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }