{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fec21ab8-e3ed-4950-8e4e-23baf496fb87", "symbol": "002115", "name": "Sunwave Communications Co.Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.539, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.705, "architecture_energy": 25.807, "architecture_maturity": 48.017, "architecture_confidence": 77.066, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.14, "rotation_up": 24.26, "upward_expansion": 14.67, "deceleration": 46.01, "rotation_down": 34.53, "downward_expansion": 62.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.302, 11.169455, 11.752857, 12.159333 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.93, "trend_reference": 12.908333, "distance_from_trend": -0.075791, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.44359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.412906, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.583563, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.200938, "excess_performance": -0.208337, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.075791, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007662, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.412906, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.425257, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045836, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12304, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.200938, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.013863, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 410363577, "relative_activity": 1.515256, "balance": 1.013863, "dry_up": 1.708293, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108453, "annualized_volatility": 0.489147, "from_high_reference": -0.431905, "from_low_reference": 0.46201 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.908333, "fair_value_reference": 8.44359, "structural_low": 9.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.016241, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.03226, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.262791, "worst_return": -0.158203, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.157113, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.023033, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.52093, "worst_return": -0.228916, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.07431, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.160869, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.05814, "worst_return": -0.35241, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034803, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.210405, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050043, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.199295, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", 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8.268462, "relative_strength": -25.536113, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.673801, "energy": 78.190431, "activity_lines": [ 11.306, 12.165818, 12.527857, 12.893312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 10.69, "volume": 43805065, "typical_volume": 257646074.65, "trend": 13.024, "fair_value": 8.294423, "relative_strength": -21.443176, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.474364, "energy": 77.60341, "activity_lines": [ 11.002667, 11.800909, 12.317476, 12.742559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.95, "volume": 132507950, "typical_volume": 235138383.55, "trend": 13.022, "fair_value": 8.323654, "relative_strength": -16.416239, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.427359, "energy": 71.013389, "activity_lines": [ 10.886667, 11.509273, 12.150381, 12.608753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.51, "volume": 574237949, "typical_volume": 248477143.35, "trend": 13.037667, "fair_value": 8.355641, "relative_strength": -3.657654, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.811388, "energy": 52.944662, "activity_lines": [ 11.047333, 11.382364, 12.052714, 12.511204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.33, "volume": 515634335, "typical_volume": 255333255.25, "trend": 12.971, "fair_value": 8.380128, "relative_strength": -13.900092, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.885877, "energy": 46.393257, "activity_lines": [ 10.814667, 11.098909, 11.860429, 12.336516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.23, "volume": 350332811, "typical_volume": 259577056.75, "trend": 12.935333, "fair_value": 8.408205, "relative_strength": -5.179831, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.724998, "energy": 38.672155, "activity_lines": [ 10.972667, 11.049636, 11.769429, 12.224194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.93, "volume": 410363577, "typical_volume": 270821364.6, "trend": 12.908333, "fair_value": 8.44359, "relative_strength": -4.583563, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.704911, "energy": 25.806743, "activity_lines": [ 11.302, 11.169455, 11.752857, 12.159333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }