{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fec68448-a0e3-4955-98ad-f415a4416104", "symbol": "CENTRUM", "name": "Centrum Capital Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 77.542, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -0.443, "architecture_energy": 5.991, "architecture_maturity": 15.572, "architecture_confidence": 63.505, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.49, "rotation_up": 33.67, "upward_expansion": 29.47, "deceleration": 41.5, "rotation_down": 19.81, "downward_expansion": 46.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.257333, 23.970727, 23.789714, 24.179032 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 25.129999, "trend_reference": 24.619333, "distance_from_trend": 0.020742, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.924615, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.187379, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.194305, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.022939, "excess_performance": 0.02077, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020742, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084284, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.187379, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019872, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101943, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086317, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.022939, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.73709, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2281419, "relative_activity": 1.145496, "balance": 0.73709, "dry_up": 0.794665, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069118, "annualized_volatility": 0.523789, "from_high_reference": -0.37175, "from_low_reference": 0.27823 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.619333, "fair_value_reference": 30.924615, "structural_low": 19.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.048485, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.052828, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.145238, "worst_return": -0.144113, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.13377, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.118571, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.080952, "worst_return": -0.254438, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.253007, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.219936, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.469048, "worst_return": -0.30597, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.04849, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.05729, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.054585, "worst_return": -0.430348, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-07-21", "end": "2023-08-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.160377, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2023-09-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006237, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-11-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.24109, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.247878, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055114, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046289, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.095635, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.141284, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085548, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.188567, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.060843, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.174341, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026121, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 24.6, "volume": 1880537, "typical_volume": 1588585.45, "trend": 20.72, "fair_value": 26.68718, "relative_strength": 3.021411, "stage": 1, "regime": 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"activity_lines": [ 24.192, 23.538727, 23.817952, 24.23714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.57, "volume": 1996596, "typical_volume": 2340658.8, "trend": 24.708333, "fair_value": 30.933397, "relative_strength": -15.919202, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.988153, "energy": 16.511346, "activity_lines": [ 24.022667, 23.618364, 23.731286, 24.151828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.129999, "volume": 2281419, "typical_volume": 1991642.5, "trend": 24.619333, "fair_value": 30.924615, "relative_strength": -10.194305, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.443456, "energy": 5.99104, "activity_lines": [ 24.257333, 23.970727, 23.789714, 24.179032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }