{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fec96332-b8c0-40a8-b7d5-c9f05e18285a", "symbol": "133690", "name": "Mirae Asset TIGER USA NASDAQ 100 ETF", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 3.508, "architecture_energy": 25.475, "architecture_maturity": 63.756, "architecture_confidence": 74.314, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.41, "rotation_up": 17.52, "upward_expansion": 49.77, "deceleration": 85.16, "rotation_down": 47.47, "downward_expansion": 32.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 185217.951042, 190531.286932, 191450.195461, 185883.323555 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 184660.0, "trend_reference": 178510.567188, "distance_from_trend": 0.034449, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 133325.379607, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.385033, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.212434, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.159819, "excess_performance": -0.070009, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034449, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061695, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.385033, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120569, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.122124, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.232057, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.159819, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.620929, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7669142, "relative_activity": 1.645346, "balance": 0.620929, "dry_up": 1.875468, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041482, "annualized_volatility": 0.189266, "from_high_reference": -0.107556, "from_low_reference": 0.299077 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 178510.567188, "fair_value_reference": 133325.379607, "structural_low": 153447.075171, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.018043, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.011063, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.062545, "worst_return": -0.130435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.04038, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.057919, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.165354, "worst_return": -0.130245, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.181931, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.075687, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.232147, "worst_return": -0.030115, 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"fair_value": 132706.041216, "relative_strength": -19.568261, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.508959, "energy": 24.150254, "activity_lines": [ 187312.872917, 192626.36733, 191546.193229, 185443.386828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 184660.0, "volume": 7669142, "typical_volume": 4661112.35, "trend": 178510.567188, "fair_value": 133325.379607, "relative_strength": -12.212434, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.507831, "energy": 25.475267, "activity_lines": [ 185217.951042, 190531.286932, 191450.195461, 185883.323555 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }