{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fecb78a5-9014-4050-8c73-433512f81835", "symbol": "300902", "name": "Guoanda Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.879, "architecture_energy": 41.17, "architecture_maturity": 59.257, "architecture_confidence": 89.273, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.94, "rotation_up": 22.02, "upward_expansion": 7.03, "deceleration": 52.43, "rotation_down": 55.75, "downward_expansion": 78.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.982, 15.177455, 15.859667, 16.641269 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 16.65, "trend_reference": 17.934, "distance_from_trend": -0.071596, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.18282, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.175041, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.562005, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.195652, "excess_performance": -0.203052, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.071596, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114064, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.175041, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05614, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.20562, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07871, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.195652, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.197077, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23707404, "relative_activity": 1.361415, "balance": 1.197077, "dry_up": 1.218951, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115685, "annualized_volatility": 0.537187, "from_high_reference": -0.501198, "from_low_reference": 0.376033 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.934, "fair_value_reference": 20.18282, "structural_low": 12.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.002628, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.005579, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.329822, "worst_return": -0.177152, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.041319, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.075695, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.423496, "worst_return": -0.240161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.036421, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.009756, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.365359, "worst_return": -0.293231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.248036, "energy": 68.099404, "activity_lines": [ 14.351333, 15.078, 16.052857, 16.96828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.67, "volume": 23633381, "typical_volume": 16986177.65, "trend": 18.073333, "fair_value": 20.236592, "relative_strength": -26.931145, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.367031, "energy": 61.09106, "activity_lines": [ 14.303333, 14.917818, 15.851286, 16.733097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.65, "volume": 23707404, "typical_volume": 17413791.0, "trend": 17.934, "fair_value": 20.18282, "relative_strength": -20.562005, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.879167, "energy": 41.170265, "activity_lines": [ 14.982, 15.177455, 15.859667, 16.641269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }