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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 90.693, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.623, "architecture_energy": 34.131, "architecture_maturity": 46.779, "architecture_confidence": 76.229, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.81, "rotation_up": 58.06, "upward_expansion": 81.16, "deceleration": 60.1, "rotation_down": 18.68, "downward_expansion": 3.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 103.65297, 103.551454, 103.36602, 103.19491 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 103.769997, "trend_reference": 102.964266, "distance_from_trend": 0.007825, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 97.570784, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.063536, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.500129, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.012485, "excess_performance": -0.03875, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007825, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005582, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.063536, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004752, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.065001, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020728, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.012485, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.220267, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22007, "relative_activity": 1.097053, "balance": 3.220267, "dry_up": 0.832374, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007613, "annualized_volatility": 0.009235, "from_high_reference": -0.006796, "from_low_reference": 0.041517 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 102.964266, "fair_value_reference": 97.570784, "structural_low": 101.699898, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 48, "median_return": 0.003685, "positive_rate": 0.979167, "directional_follow_through": 0.979167, "median_excess_return": -0.010097, "regime_survival": 0.958333, "best_return": 0.007431, "worst_return": -0.001018, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.012698, "positive_rate": 0.933333, "directional_follow_through": 0.933333, "median_excess_return": -0.0159, "regime_survival": 0.933333, "best_return": 0.014695, "worst_return": -0.001295, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.024239, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.032065, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.02875, "worst_return": -0.012598, "sufficient": 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"volume": 11292, "typical_volume": 25495.3, "trend": 102.805213, "fair_value": 97.309307, "relative_strength": -4.870555, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.716409, "energy": 41.115574, "activity_lines": [ 103.471478, 103.38059, 103.193413, 103.037326 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 103.555, "volume": 13365, "typical_volume": 24134.15, "trend": 102.856857, "fair_value": 97.396418, "relative_strength": -5.795031, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.53314, "energy": 40.143174, "activity_lines": [ 103.513186, 103.426813, 103.24417, 103.085699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 103.690002, "volume": 20126, "typical_volume": 22153.45, "trend": 102.910377, "fair_value": 97.483543, "relative_strength": -6.553594, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.928634, "energy": 38.769026, "activity_lines": [ 103.580579, 103.486967, 103.303737, 103.13945 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 103.769997, "volume": 22007, "typical_volume": 20060.1, "trend": 102.964266, "fair_value": 97.570784, "relative_strength": -6.500129, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.622607, "energy": 34.130571, "activity_lines": [ 103.65297, 103.551454, 103.36602, 103.19491 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }