{ "ticker": { "uuid": "feccd905-9bc6-420f-bc1f-bfce09dac89d", "symbol": "PGIC", "name": "Premium Global Income Split Fund", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 90.036, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.532, "architecture_energy": 37.733, "architecture_maturity": 55.26, "architecture_confidence": 81.338, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.75, "rotation_up": 39.25, "upward_expansion": 67.76, "deceleration": 90.08, "rotation_down": 29.03, "downward_expansion": 14.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.355899, 7.352266, 7.307939, 7.137577 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.37, "trend_reference": 6.894414, "distance_from_trend": 0.068981, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.273211, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.205238, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.08404, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.187816, "excess_performance": 0.067394, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068981, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076104, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.205238, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047136, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.03084, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074558, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.187816, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.541108, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 84900, "relative_activity": 1.517426, "balance": 0.541108, "dry_up": 1.68454, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028042, "annualized_volatility": 0.156893, "from_high_reference": -0.038834, "from_low_reference": 0.392304 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.894414, "fair_value_reference": 9.273211, "structural_low": 6.181006, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.014539, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.006391, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.316832, "worst_return": -0.773701, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.052285, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.053935, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.144691, "worst_return": -0.737215, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.060028, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.138892, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.683169, "worst_return": -0.738989, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.100564, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.121821, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130975, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.003456, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006788, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": 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45.354644, "activity_lines": [ 7.364406, 7.36704, 7.19105, 6.991198 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.35, "volume": 184500, "typical_volume": 57970.0, "trend": 6.760627, "fair_value": 9.434196, "relative_strength": 6.451268, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.664054, "energy": 41.820018, "activity_lines": [ 7.362022, 7.363937, 7.226558, 7.032356 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.35, "volume": 25100, "typical_volume": 53645.0, "trend": 6.807632, "fair_value": 9.372782, "relative_strength": 5.985586, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.989642, "energy": 45.987957, "activity_lines": [ 7.361565, 7.359245, 7.258119, 7.070381 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.33, "volume": 82500, "typical_volume": 55835.0, "trend": 6.850828, "fair_value": 9.318993, "relative_strength": 6.00642, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.472107, "energy": 40.61057, "activity_lines": [ 7.355051, 7.349318, 7.283325, 7.104082 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.37, "volume": 84900, "typical_volume": 55950.0, "trend": 6.894414, "fair_value": 9.273211, "relative_strength": 3.08404, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.531697, "energy": 37.733255, "activity_lines": [ 7.355899, 7.352266, 7.307939, 7.137577 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }