{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fecd5a07-7169-4241-a463-50edea07edcb", "symbol": "NMTC", "name": "Neuroone Medical Technologies Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -80.725, "architecture_energy": 92.41, "architecture_maturity": 40.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.613, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 8.74, "upward_expansion": 21.96, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 86.02, "downward_expansion": 99.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.878, 2.336727, 2.990974, 3.415294 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.63, "trend_reference": 3.94266, "distance_from_trend": -0.586574, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.2971, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.692284, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -67.257421, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.651843, "excess_performance": -0.839297, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.586574, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125061, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.692284, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.529474, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.672574, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.533326, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.651843, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.124602, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 472275, "relative_activity": 1.342044, "balance": 0.124602, "dry_up": 0.702743, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.323152, "annualized_volatility": 0.713751, "from_high_reference": -0.765805, "from_low_reference": 0.145387 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.94266, "fair_value_reference": 5.2971, "structural_low": 1.4231, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.041833, "positive_rate": 0.40625, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": -0.05924, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 1.018868, "worst_return": -0.490385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.10562, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.178635, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 1.102727, "worst_return": -0.515385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.019101, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.058643, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.560976, "worst_return": -0.683417, "sufficient": true }, { 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.233191, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.162577, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.242319, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.138194, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.083969, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": 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"volume": 206604, "typical_volume": 400314.6, "trend": 4.177653, "fair_value": 5.360818, "relative_strength": -60.91164, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.757916, "energy": 92.946507, "activity_lines": [ 2.456, 2.812, 3.38843, 3.73279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.69, "volume": 134226, "typical_volume": 370158.85, "trend": 4.063527, "fair_value": 5.327805, "relative_strength": -64.871834, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.389925, "energy": 93.50003, "activity_lines": [ 2.122, 2.561636, 3.185851, 3.572296 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.63, "volume": 472275, "typical_volume": 351907.15, "trend": 3.94266, "fair_value": 5.2971, "relative_strength": -67.257421, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.725424, "energy": 92.409815, "activity_lines": [ 1.878, 2.336727, 2.990974, 3.415294 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }