{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fecef136-b199-493d-bdfd-c9c088d4a898", "symbol": "002262", "name": "Jiangsu Nhwa Pharmaceutical Co., LTD", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 75.434, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 6.965, "architecture_energy": 26.124, "architecture_maturity": 99.297, "architecture_confidence": 49.133, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.14, "rotation_up": 49.08, "upward_expansion": 36.58, "deceleration": 44.11, "rotation_down": 14.09, "downward_expansion": 42.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.440667, 20.655455, 20.507331, 20.883269 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.84, "trend_reference": 21.542435, "distance_from_trend": 0.013813, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.176198, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.057654, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.441072, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.057136, "excess_performance": -0.064536, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013813, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059218, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.057654, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040648, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084411, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.16803, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.057136, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.089065, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56620288, "relative_activity": 1.271367, "balance": 1.089065, "dry_up": 1.642474, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057116, "annualized_volatility": 0.221947, "from_high_reference": -0.239595, "from_low_reference": 0.198025 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.542435, "fair_value_reference": 23.176198, "structural_low": 18.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.000558, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010201, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.130064, "worst_return": -0.086199, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.04456, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.012611, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.185393, "worst_return": -0.130674, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.068517, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.129854, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.226571, "worst_return": -0.047093, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.339187, "energy": 31.633499, "activity_lines": [ 19.890001, 19.68056, 20.272926, 20.902002 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.889999, "volume": 77176157, "typical_volume": 41479163.25, "trend": 21.688003, "fair_value": 23.224879, "relative_strength": -9.857206, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.351809, "energy": 25.582743, "activity_lines": [ 20.350667, 19.888795, 20.276571, 20.841391 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.1, "volume": 68039529, "typical_volume": 43159605.45, "trend": 21.602888, "fair_value": 23.199358, "relative_strength": -2.869658, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.125495, "energy": 19.608406, "activity_lines": [ 21.068, 20.313273, 20.404274, 20.867972 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.84, "volume": 56620288, "typical_volume": 44534961.05, "trend": 21.542435, "fair_value": 23.176198, "relative_strength": -8.441072, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.965272, "energy": 26.124143, "activity_lines": [ 21.440667, 20.655455, 20.507331, 20.883269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }