{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "fed8f459-b2f8-483b-afdc-21744d9a9b80",
    "symbol": "FCRU",
    "name": "WisdomTree WTI Crude Oil Longer Dated",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 79.054,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 26.578,
    "architecture_energy": 24.3,
    "architecture_maturity": 38.124,
    "architecture_confidence": 51.226,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 46.06,
        "rotation_up": 54.06,
        "upward_expansion": 66.64,
        "deceleration": 64.78,
        "rotation_down": 15.46,
        "downward_expansion": 12.3
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        69.709333,
        68.596909,
        69.805095,
        68.654129
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 67.400002,
    "trend_reference": 65.082667,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.035606,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 55.895833,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.205814,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 1.160095,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.355046,
    "excess_performance": 0.184154,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.035606,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.131164,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.205814,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.134469,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.011601,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.206626,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.355046,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.781079,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 3705,
      "relative_activity": 1.741808,
      "balance": 0.781079,
      "dry_up": 3.029947,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.05969,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.461501,
      "from_high_reference": -0.14856,
      "from_low_reference": 0.551208
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 65.082667,
      "fair_value_reference": 55.895833,
      "structural_low": 48.855,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": 0.016687,
        "positive_rate": 0.615385,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.615385,
        "median_excess_return": 0.049924,
        "regime_survival": 0.461538,
        "best_return": 0.165647,
        "worst_return": -0.042301,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.004473,
        "positive_rate": 0.428571,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.428571,
        "median_excess_return": -0.004377,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.576973,
        "worst_return": -0.157067,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.02774,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.112421,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.387442,
        "worst_return": -0.12712,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.027623,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.217846,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.832558,
        "worst_return": -0.082233,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-08-02",
        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.025087,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-09-06",
        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.05185,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.056041,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.03244,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-02-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.008584,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-02-28",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.126759,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.060334,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-08-01",
        "end": "2025-10-24",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.087356,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-10-31",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.0358,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2026-01-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.072226,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2026-02-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.046844,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2026-06-19",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.065613,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 72.580002,
        "volume": 447,
        "typical_volume": 11407.05,
        "trend": 54.737,
        "fair_value": 54.152724,
        "relative_strength": 21.822683,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.419838,
        "energy": 58.453885,
        "activity_lines": [
          71.486667,
          70.15,
          64.26069,
          59.782893
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 76.029999,
        "volume": 23,
        "typical_volume": 11377.3,
        "trend": 55.761667,
        "fair_value": 54.334103,
        "relative_strength": 27.370176,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 74.139095,
        "energy": 63.962088,
        "activity_lines": [
          73.472667,
          71.425818,
          65.903548,
          61.156634
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 77.139999,
        "volume": 62,
        "typical_volume": 11112.45,
        "trend": 56.725833,
        "fair_value": 54.516731,
        "relative_strength": 27.474227,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 73.14489,
        "energy": 66.764771,
        "activity_lines": [
          75.264,
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          67.505881,
          62.535882
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 72.209999,
        "volume": 392,
        "typical_volume": 10149.95,
        "trend": 57.536,
        "fair_value": 54.67875,
        "relative_strength": 17.604884,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 63.751689,
        "energy": 54.640617,
        "activity_lines": [
          74.534,
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          68.483523,
          63.53486
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 74.830002,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 8851.9,
        "trend": 58.447167,
        "fair_value": 54.84266,
        "relative_strength": 21.648262,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.122872,
        "energy": 53.442242,
        "activity_lines": [
          74.603334,
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          69.59119,
          64.650602
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 71.949997,
        "volume": 2,
        "typical_volume": 6988.15,
        "trend": 59.259833,
        "fair_value": 55.00375,
        "relative_strength": 13.176199,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.119358,
        "energy": 47.991035,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 68.419998,
        "volume": 50,
        "typical_volume": 3511.4,
        "trend": 60.000833,
        "fair_value": 55.132885,
        "relative_strength": 5.069744,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 43.373491,
        "energy": 30.410892,
        "activity_lines": [
          71.729999,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 63.25,
        "volume": 1550,
        "typical_volume": 3136.95,
        "trend": 60.542333,
        "fair_value": 55.238333,
        "relative_strength": 0.098609,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 17.733493,
        "energy": 19.070821,
        "activity_lines": [
          68.509999,
          71.089272,
          70.221523,
          66.322355
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 62.830002,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 3034.05,
        "trend": 61.060667,
        "fair_value": 55.34109,
        "relative_strength": -3.440087,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -7.681326,
        "energy": 24.892018,
        "activity_lines": [
          66.076,
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          69.791428,
          66.469946
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 65.639999,
        "volume": 136,
        "typical_volume": 2670.1,
        "trend": 61.749333,
        "fair_value": 55.443494,
        "relative_strength": 1.275422,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 3.146958,
        "energy": 26.70064,
        "activity_lines": [
          65.204,
          68.319272,
          69.563952,
          66.765387
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 70.220001,
        "volume": 625,
        "typical_volume": 2225.0,
        "trend": 62.604,
        "fair_value": 55.575256,
        "relative_strength": 9.637979,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 8.420859,
        "energy": 22.936683,
        "activity_lines": [
          66.471334,
          68.270545,
          69.706333,
          67.311882
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 73.239998,
        "volume": 11431,
        "typical_volume": 2115.6,
        "trend": 63.534667,
        "fair_value": 55.705897,
        "relative_strength": 14.179569,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 41.848638,
        "energy": 19.547411,
        "activity_lines": [
          68.860666,
          68.813818,
          70.049904,
          67.998075
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 70.709999,
        "volume": 10019,
        "typical_volume": 2345.9,
        "trend": 64.4065,
        "fair_value": 55.811474,
        "relative_strength": 9.395982,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 37.771877,
        "energy": 26.628709,
        "activity_lines": [
          70.085333,
          68.947818,
          70.084333,
          68.461
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 67.400002,
        "volume": 3705,
        "typical_volume": 2127.1,
        "trend": 65.082667,
        "fair_value": 55.895833,
        "relative_strength": 1.160095,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 26.577759,
        "energy": 24.299598,
        "activity_lines": [
          69.709333,
          68.596909,
          69.805095,
          68.654129
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}