{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fedbb625-5543-4d40-b631-0a7b237f8def", "symbol": "CYR", "name": "cyan AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.763, "architecture_energy": 26.477, "architecture_maturity": 28.473, "architecture_confidence": 76.336, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.87, "rotation_up": 20.15, "upward_expansion": 6.8, "deceleration": 58.63, "rotation_down": 44.02, "downward_expansion": 68.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.972667, 1.973636, 2.011381, 2.029957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.98, "trend_reference": 2.070667, "distance_from_trend": -0.043786, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.204038, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.101649, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.558082, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.074766, "excess_performance": -0.139406, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.043786, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040618, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.101649, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010857, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.165581, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014568, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.074766, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.393676, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25154, "relative_activity": 2.319752, "balance": 0.393676, "dry_up": 1.615799, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068765, "annualized_volatility": 0.303927, "from_high_reference": -0.36129, "from_low_reference": 0.087912 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.070667, "fair_value_reference": 2.204038, "structural_low": 1.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.009684, "positive_rate": 0.527778, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.018024, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.318584, "worst_return": -0.421333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.040201, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.073524, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.699248, "worst_return": -0.465538, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.058691, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.007866, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.837398, "worst_return": -0.648118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.214152, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.318478, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.097561, "worst_return": -0.661396, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033058, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035398, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054545, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046512, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022222, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.121212, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.08209, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104478, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 1.87, "volume": 28343, "typical_volume": 11441.95, "trend": 2.085333, "fair_value": 2.201026, "relative_strength": -17.268986, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.10968, "energy": 72.511039, "activity_lines": [ 1.927333, 1.988727, 2.020143, 2.045269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.04, "volume": 9244, "typical_volume": 11132.7, "trend": 2.078, "fair_value": 2.202756, "relative_strength": -10.436999, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.716598, "energy": 50.476778, "activity_lines": [ 1.956, 1.987818, 2.020619, 2.042344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.98, "volume": 7342, "typical_volume": 9709.0, "trend": 2.074, "fair_value": 2.203526, "relative_strength": -14.599112, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.431077, "energy": 34.097206, "activity_lines": [ 1.964667, 1.978182, 2.015857, 2.036022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.98, "volume": 25154, "typical_volume": 10843.4, "trend": 2.070667, "fair_value": 2.204038, "relative_strength": -16.558082, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.762592, "energy": 26.476989, "activity_lines": [ 1.972667, 1.973636, 2.011381, 2.029957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }