{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fee0b533-f024-4134-ab54-4b2c86701d1c", "symbol": "MXNU", "name": "Elite UK REIT", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.461, "architecture_energy": 51.362, "architecture_maturity": 44.87, "architecture_confidence": 88.88, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.28, "rotation_up": 21.49, "upward_expansion": 7.86, "deceleration": 57.04, "rotation_down": 54.71, "downward_expansion": 78.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.311, 0.312769, 0.317921, 0.323553 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.315, "trend_reference": 0.33088, "distance_from_trend": -0.047993, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.270499, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.164514, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.216934, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.075444, "excess_performance": -0.230279, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.047993, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027403, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.164514, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057759, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.212169, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091003, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.075444, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.146172, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2521200, "relative_activity": 2.208344, "balance": 1.146172, "dry_up": 1.156376, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027652, "annualized_volatility": 0.137575, "from_high_reference": -0.136986, "from_low_reference": 0.05 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.33088, "fair_value_reference": 0.270499, "structural_low": 0.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.304348, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.017935, "regime_survival": 0.869565, "best_return": 0.204085, "worst_return": -0.253012, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.044766, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.097743, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.09804, "worst_return": -0.325301, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.067846, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.066288, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.325335, "worst_return": -0.401645, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"energy": 81.112941, "activity_lines": [ 0.31541, 0.319117, 0.324372, 0.329662 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.305, "volume": 1080500, "typical_volume": 1136155.0, "trend": 0.334263, "fair_value": 0.268578, "relative_strength": -22.593086, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.612868, "energy": 88.931439, "activity_lines": [ 0.311026, 0.316242, 0.321973, 0.327697 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.31, "volume": 684000, "typical_volume": 1104370.0, "trend": 0.33308, "fair_value": 0.269231, "relative_strength": -21.950096, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.722559, "energy": 80.179942, "activity_lines": [ 0.309667, 0.31456, 0.320313, 0.326132 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.31, "volume": 995100, "typical_volume": 1057820.0, "trend": 0.331897, "fair_value": 0.269884, "relative_strength": -21.967927, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.501653, "energy": 76.277288, "activity_lines": [ 0.309333, 0.31307, 0.318819, 0.324643 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.315, "volume": 2521200, "typical_volume": 1141670.0, "trend": 0.33088, "fair_value": 0.270499, "relative_strength": -21.216934, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.461208, "energy": 51.362492, "activity_lines": [ 0.311, 0.312769, 0.317921, 0.323553 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }