{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fee4ecf5-b38d-4e94-ace5-52a6aa378f01", "symbol": "COPR", "name": "Sprott Pure Play Copper Miners UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.089, "architecture_energy": 22.295, "architecture_maturity": 21.992, "architecture_confidence": 58.858, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.78, "rotation_up": 43.9, "upward_expansion": 59.25, "deceleration": 60.58, "rotation_down": 23.79, "downward_expansion": 18.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.268534, 19.074837, 19.143381, 19.017166 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 20.790001, "trend_reference": 19.016133, "distance_from_trend": 0.093282, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.46317, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.668115, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.515952, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.076756, "excess_performance": -0.094136, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.093282, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059054, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.668115, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032238, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.05516, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107173, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.076756, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.625546, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13630, "relative_activity": 1.26917, "balance": 1.625546, "dry_up": 0.529015, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06108, "annualized_volatility": 0.445079, "from_high_reference": -0.070838, "from_low_reference": 0.989474 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.016133, "fair_value_reference": 12.46317, "structural_low": 15.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.139178, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.118214, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.139178, "worst_return": 0.139178, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.749406, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.312747, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027456, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.139178, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-01-12", 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17200.75, "trend": 18.722467, "fair_value": 12.217108, "relative_strength": 0.849539, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.046426, "energy": 14.490235, "activity_lines": [ 19.237867, 19.418327, 19.094924, 19.009879 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.25, "volume": 1675, "typical_volume": 16059.7, "trend": 18.796667, "fair_value": 12.26316, "relative_strength": -3.164791, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.416302, "energy": 14.521668, "activity_lines": [ 18.845933, 19.220945, 19.031171, 18.979398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.622, "volume": 4479, "typical_volume": 14724.2, "trend": 18.834667, "fair_value": 12.303758, "relative_strength": -5.629727, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.656132, "energy": 30.213842, "activity_lines": [ 18.329467, 18.904327, 18.914457, 18.903613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.983999, "volume": 2997, "typical_volume": 13443.4, "trend": 18.898933, "fair_value": 12.353985, "relative_strength": 1.197525, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.590708, "energy": 19.195643, "activity_lines": [ 18.439866, 18.864072, 18.945019, 18.913247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.658001, "volume": 1619, "typical_volume": 11288.75, "trend": 18.938333, "fair_value": 12.40103, "relative_strength": -1.81565, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.946984, "energy": 20.862084, "activity_lines": [ 18.5052, 18.771164, 18.945048, 18.897703 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.790001, "volume": 13630, "typical_volume": 10739.3, "trend": 19.016133, "fair_value": 12.46317, "relative_strength": 5.515952, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.089495, "energy": 22.295066, "activity_lines": [ 19.268534, 19.074837, 19.143381, 19.017166 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }