{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fee6092e-7074-4854-932d-15fd7a5855e9", "symbol": "NAD", "name": "Nuveen Quality Municipal Income Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.122, "architecture_energy": 19.197, "architecture_maturity": 41.221, "architecture_confidence": 77.11, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.18, "rotation_up": 28.41, "upward_expansion": 55.46, "deceleration": 86.34, "rotation_down": 33.81, "downward_expansion": 21.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.782661, 11.82368, 11.782162, 11.746855 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 11.89, "trend_reference": 11.727918, "distance_from_trend": 0.01382, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.486579, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.13383, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.129932, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.005425, "excess_performance": -0.1202, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01382, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007988, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.13383, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01663, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081299, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019242, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.005425, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.303743, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2723643, "relative_activity": 0.842124, "balance": 1.303743, "dry_up": 0.868947, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01966, "annualized_volatility": 0.112968, "from_high_reference": -0.014781, "from_low_reference": 0.13307 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.727918, "fair_value_reference": 10.486579, "structural_low": 10.913094, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.00908, "positive_rate": 0.652174, "directional_follow_through": 0.652174, "median_excess_return": -0.007582, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.037533, "worst_return": -0.074446, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.009322, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.022509, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.097325, "worst_return": -0.038087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.034118, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.057438, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.07962, "worst_return": -0.004628, "sufficient": false }, { 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.88, "volume": 2516440, "typical_volume": 3364039.85, "trend": 11.717115, "fair_value": 10.436109, "relative_strength": -4.897664, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.539167, "energy": 49.959228, "activity_lines": [ 11.909688, 11.866259, 11.768074, 11.743684 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.61, "volume": 2997416, "typical_volume": 3305868.55, "trend": 11.720248, "fair_value": 10.451207, "relative_strength": -6.4266, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.539437, "energy": 13.655576, "activity_lines": [ 11.806487, 11.8304, 11.759962, 11.736774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.71, "volume": 3004078, "typical_volume": 3261788.15, "trend": 11.723496, "fair_value": 10.468263, "relative_strength": -6.494317, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.707919, "energy": 16.164686, "activity_lines": [ 11.755932, 11.812024, 11.7624, 11.736113 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.89, "volume": 2723643, "typical_volume": 3234253.35, "trend": 11.727918, "fair_value": 10.486579, "relative_strength": -8.129932, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.122182, "energy": 19.1967, "activity_lines": [ 11.782661, 11.82368, 11.782162, 11.746855 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }