{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fee7899c-7c3a-47b9-88d4-2180705c7562", "symbol": "FTHM", "name": "Fathom Holdings\u00a0Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.625, "architecture_energy": 20.155, "architecture_maturity": 32.925, "architecture_confidence": 65.132, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.5, "rotation_up": 13.11, "upward_expansion": 18.54, "deceleration": 63.1, "rotation_down": 47.99, "downward_expansion": 54.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.814287, 0.861016, 0.815496, 0.820068 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.76, "trend_reference": 0.869877, "distance_from_trend": -0.126313, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.872524, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.594131, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -42.833524, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.279621, "excess_performance": -0.467074, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.126313, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111452, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.594131, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057396, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.428335, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026666, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.279621, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.860894, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1028570, "relative_activity": 0.17637, "balance": 8.860894, "dry_up": 0.124155, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.279089, "annualized_volatility": 1.567605, "from_high_reference": -0.774481, "from_low_reference": 0.899525 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.869877, "fair_value_reference": 1.872524, "structural_low": 0.4001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.001274, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.052903, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.325301, "worst_return": -0.327586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.408377, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.321012, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.236559, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.059829, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.200901, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.152074, "worst_return": -0.251309, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.349549, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.592988, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.303665, "worst_return": -0.552995, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.400524, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.283262, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05614, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.26, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.260204, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.131944, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.157025, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.320513, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.45614, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.327586, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03876, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.045872, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.109223, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045226, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.21, "volume": 175901, "typical_volume": 147664.6, "trend": 5.822667, "fair_value": 17.187372, "relative_strength": 12.554898, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", 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17.382381, "energy": 32.879926, "activity_lines": [ 0.979707, 0.839725, 0.807718, 0.840771 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.8651, "volume": 605043, "typical_volume": 5786925.85, "trend": 0.90111, "fair_value": 2.000249, "relative_strength": -34.830829, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.87675, "energy": 32.823233, "activity_lines": [ 0.964527, 0.856805, 0.813735, 0.837965 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.849, "volume": 682055, "typical_volume": 5789623.55, "trend": 0.892743, "fair_value": 1.953768, "relative_strength": -34.010953, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.20898, "energy": 25.863401, "activity_lines": [ 0.914313, 0.8703, 0.818851, 0.834603 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.796, "volume": 580553, "typical_volume": 5801916.9, "trend": 0.888543, "fair_value": 1.911306, "relative_strength": -37.891264, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.60038, "energy": 11.144332, "activity_lines": [ 0.861167, 0.870631, 0.81902, 0.828361 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.76, "volume": 1028570, "typical_volume": 5831881.0, "trend": 0.869877, "fair_value": 1.872524, "relative_strength": -42.833524, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.625092, "energy": 20.155261, "activity_lines": [ 0.814287, 0.861016, 0.815496, 0.820068 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }