{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fee8a675-5ed9-4b93-a020-12b4b308e34e", "symbol": "AKTX", "name": "Akari Therapeutics PLC", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.013, "architecture_energy": 18.036, "architecture_maturity": 39.531, "architecture_confidence": 65.069, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.6, "rotation_up": 18.53, "upward_expansion": 16.06, "deceleration": 65.1, "rotation_down": 53.59, "downward_expansion": 38.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.562667, 9.824545, 10.196438, 9.598262 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.0, "trend_reference": 9.248867, "distance_from_trend": -0.243151, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 64.570885, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.891592, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -63.170251, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.255319, "excess_performance": -0.442773, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.243151, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147963, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.891592, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026413, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.631703, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.168722, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.255319, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.674099, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 134637, "relative_activity": 0.051937, "balance": 4.674099, "dry_up": 0.072571, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.73748, "annualized_volatility": 2.804746, "from_high_reference": -0.858871, "from_low_reference": 1.321725 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.248867, "fair_value_reference": 64.570885, "structural_low": 3.015, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.060773, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.230769, "median_excess_return": -0.120366, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.053942, "worst_return": -0.286594, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.187369, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.309255, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.062241, "worst_return": -0.341449, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.338528, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.611077, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.284529, "worst_return": -0.61675, "sufficient": false }, { 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.117089, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.218824, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.273579, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.564748, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.170543, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.070539, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -9.9e-05, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.905317, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.412698, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.32757, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 136.4, "volume": 1973617, "typical_volume": 2687947.3, "trend": 196.490667, "fair_value": 1022.00101, "relative_strength": -64.975655, "stage": 4, "regime": 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9.559867, "fair_value": 68.999538, "relative_strength": -38.586222, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.082969, "energy": 20.79253, "activity_lines": [ 11.900667, 12.444, 10.396067, 9.822576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.01, "volume": 237290, "typical_volume": 2934853.55, "trend": 9.580067, "fair_value": 68.177808, "relative_strength": -47.045749, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.227899, "energy": 16.574684, "activity_lines": [ 11.613333, 12.284545, 10.572448, 9.916133 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.7, "volume": 211530, "typical_volume": 2878775.75, "trend": 9.5158, "fair_value": 67.115628, "relative_strength": -55.572062, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.297084, "energy": 12.863314, "activity_lines": [ 10.715333, 11.618545, 10.52139, 9.859355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.86, "volume": 169049, "typical_volume": 2786956.0, "trend": 9.391133, "fair_value": 65.806013, "relative_strength": -58.351969, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.977427, "energy": 10.631326, "activity_lines": [ 9.686667, 10.705091, 10.396752, 9.752529 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.0, "volume": 134637, "typical_volume": 2592299.65, "trend": 9.248867, "fair_value": 64.570885, "relative_strength": -63.170251, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.01268, "energy": 18.035518, "activity_lines": [ 8.562667, 9.824545, 10.196438, 9.598262 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }