{ "ticker": { "uuid": "feef8f9c-61ab-4abf-a3f3-c53e0bbfab66", "symbol": "SRAD", "name": "Sportradar Group AG", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.108, "architecture_energy": 44.249, "architecture_maturity": 25.984, "architecture_confidence": 80.073, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.89, "rotation_up": 14.1, "upward_expansion": 12.97, "deceleration": 49.32, "rotation_down": 56.75, "downward_expansion": 71.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.022667, 14.440909, 14.347, 14.919613 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.02, "trend_reference": 15.778, "distance_from_trend": -0.1748, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.792788, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.224667, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.202857, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.233667, "excess_performance": -0.42112, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.1748, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141769, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.224667, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005455, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.442029, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094377, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.233667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.034201, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28855283, "relative_activity": 1.845186, "balance": 1.034201, "dry_up": 0.960082, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118639, "annualized_volatility": 0.583057, "from_high_reference": -0.595903, "from_low_reference": 0.127273 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.778, "fair_value_reference": 16.792788, "structural_low": 11.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.024588, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.013536, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.266869, "worst_return": -0.081811, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.092263, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.034427, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.15674, "worst_return": -0.178482, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.011765, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.161582, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.557245, "worst_return": -0.070755, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.713974, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.439738, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.345873, "worst_return": 0.082075, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019569, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.149062, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.166523, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037618, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.12851, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.097154, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018198, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004517, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05877, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.490972, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030659, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042229, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.338825, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.132578, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 11.96, "volume": 2889064, "typical_volume": 1629140.15, "trend": 12.463667, "fair_value": 13.085545, "relative_strength": -9.187088, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.57096, "energy": 14.593796, 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"fair_value": 12.956729, "relative_strength": -22.706812, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -49.353908, "energy": 75.025637, "activity_lines": [ 10.359333, 11.071091, 12.040548, 12.151043 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-06", "close": 9.64, "volume": 1066908, "typical_volume": 1408320.2, "trend": 12.027167, "fair_value": 12.926019, "relative_strength": -26.698892, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.571432, "energy": 87.0147, "activity_lines": [ 10.020667, 10.663636, 11.779571, 11.993118 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-13", "close": 9.0, "volume": 902067, "typical_volume": 1399232.9, "trend": 11.984167, "fair_value": 12.89, "relative_strength": -31.394401, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.137479, "energy": 92.885077, "activity_lines": [ 9.593333, 10.235455, 11.47169, 11.797817 ] }, { "date": 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15333889.1, "trend": 16.626333, "fair_value": 16.794519, "relative_strength": -39.261583, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.273169, "energy": 12.240284, "activity_lines": [ 14.899333, 14.744909, 14.683524, 15.380839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.29, "volume": 9574838, "typical_volume": 14931014.75, "trend": 16.332667, "fair_value": 16.790609, "relative_strength": -37.618292, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.127123, "energy": 20.05918, "activity_lines": [ 14.679333, 14.736364, 14.583667, 15.230108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.54, "volume": 10146249, "typical_volume": 14881149.35, "trend": 16.04, "fair_value": 16.790673, "relative_strength": -35.674841, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.130601, "energy": 20.820641, "activity_lines": [ 14.594, 14.740545, 14.527905, 15.114452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.02, "volume": 28855283, "typical_volume": 15638144.2, "trend": 15.778, "fair_value": 16.792788, "relative_strength": -44.202857, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.1083, "energy": 44.24928, "activity_lines": [ 14.022667, 14.440909, 14.347, 14.919613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }